The World Bank has projected Pakistan’s economic growth at 1.7 percent for the ongoing fiscal year 2023-24, attributing the subdued economic outlook to tight monetary policy and political uncertainty.
In its latest report titled “Global Economic Prospects — January 2024”, the World Bank said that the subdued economic outlook for FY 2023-24 (July 2023 to June 2024) was linked to tight monetary policies aimed at curbing inflation and a contractionary fiscal policy, largely influenced by high debt-service obligations.
“Monetary policy is expected to remain tight to contain inflation, while fiscal policy is also set to be contractionary, reflecting pressures from high debt-service payments,” read the report.
The report stated that weak confidence stemming from political turmoil will contribute to the slow growth in private demand but if inflationary pressure eased, growth is expected to pick up to 2.4 percent in FY2024-25.
The latest forecast comes at a time when Pakistan’s output contracted an estimated 0.2 percent in FY2022-23 as a result of the 2022 floods and increased political uncertainty. Consumer price inflation remained elevated, partly reflecting currency depreciation in early 2023.
However, by late 2023, the rupee showed signs of stabilisation, driven by a variety of factors. These included increased liquidity in the foreign exchange market due to tighter enforcement of regulations, a shrinking money supply, a balance-of-payments surplus on account of low import demand, and a moratorium on Chinese debt repayments, the report said.
In a number of South Asian economies including Pakistan, India, Maldives, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, parliamentary or national assembly elections are scheduled or planned in 2024. The report expressed concerns that the heightened uncertainty around these elections could dampen activity in the private sector, including foreign investment.
The World Bank warned, “If combined with political or social unrest and elevated violence, this could further disrupt and weaken economic growth. In addition, particularly in countries with weak fiscal positions, an increase in spending prior to these elections could exacerbate macro-fiscal vulnerabilities.”
However, the report suggested that the implementation of policies to reduce uncertainty and strengthen growth potential after elections could lead to an improvement in prospects.
The World Bank highlighted that external and fiscal financing needs are elevated in several South Asian economies, including Pakistan, Maldives and Sri Lanka, increasing vulnerabilities to financial market disruptions. In these economies, market sentiment can suddenly shift in response to financial sector stress or weakening fiscal positions.
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