U.S. new vehicle sales are expected to increase by 2.5% in June to 1.25 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to a joint report by U.S.-based J.D. Power and UK-based GlobalData.
However, without adjusting for the number of selling days, sales are projected to fall 5.4% from the same month last year.
The report notes that many consumers pulled forward purchases into March and April due to concerns that tariffs under President Donald Trump would raise prices later in the year. That early buying activity reduced demand in June.
The year-over-year comparison is also affected by a cyberattack-related outage in June 2024 that reduced retail sales by about 85,000 vehicles. As a result, the drop in actual demand this year may be more significant than the headline numbers suggest.
The average new vehicle retail price in June is expected to reach $46,233, up 3.1% from a year earlier and 0.2% from May. Current tariffs add around $4,275 on average to manufacturers’ costs per vehicle, though the exact impact varies depending on where the vehicles are produced.
In response to those cost pressures, automakers have reduced incentive spending. Incentives as a percentage of the manufacturer’s suggested retail price fell from 6.1% in January to 5% in June.
Some buyers, particularly those looking for lower-cost options, have delayed purchases as a result of higher prices and fewer discounts.
For the second quarter of 2025, vehicle sales are projected to reach 4.18 million units, up 2.5% from the same period last year. However, analysts warn that July’s year-over-year comparisons may again be distorted, as July 2024 sales were lifted by a recovery from the prior month’s software outage.
