Weighed down by inflation and soaring utility bills, Pakistanis are expected to get some respite as petroleum product prices are expected to drop by up to Rs3.13 per litre in the first half of September 2025.
According to industry sources, the ex-depot sale price of petrol (motor gasoline) is expected to dip by Rs0.61 per litre, from Rs264.61 on August 16 to Rs264.00 per litre from September 1.
High-speed diesel (HSD), the country’s most widely consumed fuel, is forecast to fall by Rs3.13 per litre to Rs269.86. Kerosene, largely used in rural households and for heating, is projected to decline by Rs1.78 per litre to Rs176.70, while light diesel oil (LDO) is expected to fall by Rs2.61 per litre to Rs159.55.
The estimated ex-refinery price adjustments show a similar downward trajectory. Petrol is likely to drop by Rs0.43 per litre, diesel (HSD) by Rs2.87 per litre, kerosene by Rs1.57 per litre, and light diesel oil by Rs2.61 per litre. These changes reflect global oil price movements, import premiums, and refining margins.
In percentage terms, the projected reduction is modest: petrol may decline by 0.2%, diesel by 1.1%, kerosene by 0.9%, and light diesel oil by 1.6%. The smaller drop in petrol compared to diesel reflects differing international pricing trends and import costs.
However, the estimates do not factor in foreign exchange losses, which are normally booked by oil marketing companies and passed on to consumers through price revisions. A note accompanying the estimates clarified: “Exchange loss/gain not included.” This caveat leaves room for significant adjustments depending on the rupee-dollar exchange rate, which has remained volatile in recent weeks.
The projected relief comes against the backdrop of international crude oil benchmarks, where motor gasoline premiums are calculated at $6.37 per barrel and HSD premiums at $3.20 per barrel. Domestic pricing also factors in the Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM), which currently stands at Rs8.05 per litre for petrol and Rs6.20 per litre for diesel, alongside the Petroleum Levy (PL) and the Climate Support Levy (CSL), a component of the PL charged on petroleum products that affects their final price.
The Ministry of Finance typically announces final fortnightly adjustments in fuel prices after reviewing the working paper prepared by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA). With one trading day of international Platts benchmarks still remaining before the cut-off, the estimates could change slightly. The omission of exchange rate adjustments also means that a depreciation of the rupee against the dollar could wipe out the projected relief, or conversely, an appreciation could enlarge it.
Industry sources also said that while global oil prices have eased somewhat in recent weeks, premiums on refined products remain elevated, reflecting shipping costs and supply risks. Regional demand dynamics, particularly from South Asia and East Asia, continue to exert pressure on product markets.
