Federal govt rules out sugar exports over supply concerns

The federal government has decided not to allow sugar exports during the current marketing year due to concerns over domestic supply and stock availability.

According to reports, the Federal Ministry of National Food Security and Research has indicated that no exportable surplus exists, despite industry proposals to ship around one million tons abroad. The position comes as authorities assess supply requirements for the remainder of the year.

Industry estimates show production at 7.21 million tons as of mid-March, with projections reaching 7.5 million tons by the end of the season. Based on this, millers have argued that a surplus is available for export.

However, official stock data presents a different outlook. Total physical sugar stocks stood at around 5.002 million tons in mid-March, while annual domestic demand is estimated at 6.5 million tons.

With average monthly consumption at 0.541 million tons, the country requires approximately 4.33 million tons to meet demand from March to November. When a strategic reserve of 0.7 million tons and an additional 0.3 million tons for supply chain needs are included, total required stock rises to about 5.33 million tons.

This indicates a projected shortfall of more than 0.33 million tons, raising concerns about supply stability. Market participants say this gap challenges claims of an exportable surplus.

Data also shows an increase in sugar lifting, averaging 0.591 million tons per month during 2025–26 compared to 0.551 million tons in the previous year. Total lifting for the current year is projected at 7.094 million tons, which may further tighten supply.

Stakeholders have warned that allowing exports under these conditions could increase domestic prices. They say maintaining supply balance remains critical for managing availability of the commodity.