World Bank proposes five-point roadmap to reform Pakistan wheat sector

The World Bank has outlined a five-point roadmap to modernise Pakistan’s wheat sector, focusing on productivity, private investment, and a shift towards a market-based system.

The recommendations, presented in a report titled Wheat Sector Modernisation Roadmap, call for reforms aimed at increasing farmer incomes, improving efficiency, and supporting long-term agricultural growth. The report identifies five priority areas, including closing the productivity gap, increasing investment in agricultural research and development, supporting small farmers, improving institutional coordination, and managing grain reserves more efficiently.

The report states that Pakistan needs to transition from state-led interventions to a market-oriented framework. Policies such as minimum support prices and public procurement have historically ensured supply stability but have also led to inefficiencies, high fiscal costs, and limited incentives for crop diversification and private sector participation.

It notes that the discontinuation of public procurement in 2024 marked a structural shift, but further reforms are required to strengthen governance, improve policy consistency, and support productivity-enhancing investments.

According to the report, Pakistan’s wheat yields remain significantly below comparable countries. Average yields are around 3,200kg per hectare, about 50 percent lower than Egypt, 25 percent below Ukraine, 10 percent below India, and roughly 35 percent lower than India’s Punjab region. The report adds that yields are about 60 percent below the potential of improved seed varieties, which can reach around 7,500kg per hectare.

The productivity gap is attributed to weaknesses in seed systems, inefficient fertiliser use, and water management issues. The report highlights that only 38 percent of seeds are supplied through formal channels, with the majority coming from informal sources, limiting access to certified and high-yield varieties.

The roadmap recommends redirecting subsidies towards research and innovation, improving seed quality, and promoting efficient input use. It also calls for better access to finance, aggregation mechanisms, and digital advisory services to support smallholder farmers.

The report further emphasises the need to strengthen wheat market information systems, improve coordination across provinces, and limit the use of strategic grain reserves to emergency situations to enhance price stability and transparency.

It also notes that high reliance on wheat in the national diet has contributed to limited dietary diversity. Wheat accounts for 40–50 percent of daily caloric intake but only 13 percent of household food expenditure, while consumption of other nutritious crops such as pulses and oilseeds remains low.

The World Bank states that a reformed wheat sector, supported by public-private partnerships in research, storage, and value chains, can contribute to food security, job creation, and sustainable agricultural development.