Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday, awaiting further price direction from OPEC’s monthly report, with investor disappointment over China’s latest stimulus plan and oversupply concerns keeping buying interest at bay.
Brent crude futures rose 4 cents to $71.87 a barrel, by 0745 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down one cent at $68.03 a barrel.
Both contracts had fallen by more than 5% over the previous two trading sessions.
Deflationary risks from China, as well as the lack of concrete fiscal stimulus measures from Chinese policymakers to spur demand, are weighing on sentiment, said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA.
“On the supply side, it will be the ‘Trump Trade’ narrative that focuses on making the U.S. the major supplier of shale gas, as the current North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, a pro-oil drilling advocate, is among the short-listed candidates to be named as Energy Secretary under the incoming Trump administration,” he said.
Beijing unveiled a 10-trillion-yuan ($1.4-trillion) debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains, as the country faces fresh pressure from the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, who has threatened more tariffs on Chinese goods.
But analysts said it fell short of the amount of stimulus that would be needed to boost economic growth.
The world’s biggest oil importer also released inflation data over the weekend, which showed consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in October while producer price deflation deepened.
Further price direction may come from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly report later on Tuesday.
The market will be looking out for further downward revisions in demand forecasts from the group’s outlook through 2025, which would add to downward pressure on prices.
“We think OPEC+ will be forced to keep delaying the decision to roll back their voluntary cuts. This decision will still result in surplus pressures building,” said Vivek Dhar, an analyst with Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“The key risk to our outlook is that OPEC+ look to unwind their voluntary supply cuts from January, thereby exacerbating oversupply pressures,” he added.
“Any hint that OPEC+ are opting to defend market share over targeting higher oil prices has the potential to see oil prices tumble.”
The U.S. dollar held around four-month highs on Tuesday, as it is expected to benefit from Trump policies that are likely to keep U.S. interest rates relatively higher for longer.
Markets are also bracing for further signals from U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve speakers this week.
A stronger dollar makes commodities denominated in the U.S. currency, such as oil, more expensive for holders of other currencies, and tends to weigh on prices.
