With interest dwindling, does Pakistan have a climate funding plan?

With temperatures rising across the globe, Pakistan finds itself in an increasingly vulnerable position. It is ranked among the countries most threatened by climate change due to its geography, which exposes it to extreme weather events, including devastating heatwaves, rapid glacial melting, erratic monsoons, and catastrophic floods. The 2022 floods alone displaced millions of people and caused billions of dollars of damages, which highlights the country’s fragility in the face of climate disasters. However, just as these risks escalate, foreign funding for climate finance is rapidly dwindling.

The rise of nationalist policies in the U.S. has led to an aid freeze, cutting off crucial financial support for climate adaptation and mitigation projects in the country. Due to traditional donors stepping back, Pakistan’s ability to fund large-scale climate resilience initiatives has become severely constrained. Multilateral institutions and development finance stakeholders once filled this gap, but with shifting global priorities, their commitments are uncertain.

This leaves Pakistan at a crossroads: does it have a coherent strategy to address its climate vulnerabilities, or will it continue with fragmented, short-term solutions? In this piece, we’ll try to decipher the Government of Pakistan’s vision to deal with an accelerating climate crisis that endangers the country. 

Pakistan at High Risk to Climate Change

According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan ranks fifth on the list of countries that are at highest risk to climate change. Although it contributes less than 1% of the global carbon emissions, its geography makes it extremely vulnerable to climate change. Pakistan is located in a region, which finds itself sandwiched between two weather systems, one produces high temperatures leading to droughts and heatwaves in March, while the other induces heavy monsoon rains July onwards. Pakistan has a diverse geographical terrain, ranging from high altitudes in the northeast to arid coastal plains in the south that put  Pakistan at risk to climate related ramifications instigated by rising global temperatures.

It is also worth mentioning that Pakistan is an agrarian economy. However, climate related shocks have led to a contraction in its agricultural productivity leading to diminishing crop yields and an unprecedented level of food insecurity. If current trends continue, it is expected that the agricultural production in the country would reduce by 8-10% by 2040. Furthermore, since Pakistan has high population density, climate change has elevated the risk of climate-sensitive epidemics in the country as well. According to the World Bank, a four fold increase in the occurrence of malaria has been observed in the country, a jump from 400,000 cases in 2021 to 1.6 million in 2022 was recorded, primarily due to floods in Pakistan.

The floods of 2022 were the most devastating in Pakistan’s history since its inception. They were destructive to such an extent that they inundated one-third of the country and caused colossal economic damages worth $14.9 billion, around 4.8% of Pakistan’s GDP for fiscal year 2022. As per the World Bank, Pakistan in order to counter climate change impact and development challenges between 2023 to 2030 requires $348 billion, roughly 10.7% of cumulative GDP for the said term. Hence, Pakistan needs a holistic climate financing strategy.