ADB flags census data gap, warns Pakistan lacks worker-level insight on climate shocks

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has flagged a key data gap in Pakistan’s census, warning that the absence of employment status information prevents meaningful analysis of how climate shocks affect workers.

In its latest report, Heat stress, air pollution risk, and population exposure: evidence from selected Asian countries, the ADB said Pakistan’s census does not report employment status, limiting analysis to population exposure without the ability to distinguish impacts on workers.

The Bank noted that Pakistan’s air pollution is largely driven by industrial and traffic-related emissions, such as smog, which persist throughout the year and show limited seasonal variation. As a result, fluctuations in overall PM2.5 concentrations are relatively small compared with other countries in the region.

Pakistan was contrasted with Bangladesh, where winter atmospheric conditions allow pollutants to accumulate, while monsoon rainfall and strong winds in summer significantly reduce pollution levels. In Pakistan, exposure to westerly winds, desert airflows, and varied topography leads to weaker and less uniform seasonal patterns.

According to the report, Pakistan shows a positive correlation between heat stress and air pollution, with PM2.5 levels rising markedly between 2000 and 2020. PM2.5 concentrations ranged from 0 to 80 micrograms per cubic metre in 2000 and from 0 to 100 micrograms per cubic metre in 2020, indicating an increase in extreme pollution levels over time.

While more district-months recorded PM2.5 levels above 80 micrograms per cubic metre in 2020 than in 2000, the average concentration below this threshold declined, suggesting a downward shift in lower and mid-range pollution levels.

The correlation between temperature and PM2.5 remained positive across the period studied, though Pearson correlation coefficients declined from 0.39 in 2000 to 0.20 in 2020. This indicates that some districts continue to face simultaneous exposure to heat stress and air pollution. The ADB also found no clear seasonal pattern in PM2.5 levels, with similar pollution trends observed in both hot and cold months.

The report attributed Pakistan’s flatter seasonal pollution profile to its diverse climatic zones, irregular rainfall, and frequent dust storms, which contribute to high natural PM2.5 levels and offset potential reductions in pollution during summer months.

Beyond employment data gaps, the ADB highlighted broader limitations in census geo-information across countries, noting that climate impacts are highly localized and that aggregation at higher administrative levels can introduce significant measurement errors. It stressed that such limitations constrain accurate assessment of how temperature and air pollution affect individuals, particularly workers.