Balochistan central to CPEC’s economic case, but security and governance risks loom

Balochistan, which holds an estimated 75 per cent of Pakistan’s mineral wealth, is emerging as a core pillar of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with officials and analysts linking the province’s development, stability, and long term prosperity to the success of the multibillion dollar initiative.

Launched in 2015, CPEC marked a turning point for Pakistan’s infrastructure landscape. At the time, the country, particularly Balochistan, was facing daily power outages of 16 to 18 hours, weak road connectivity, and subdued economic activity. Officials say more than $25 billion in CPEC related investment has since gone into energy, transport, and port infrastructure, producing visible spillover effects in the province.

According to official data, over 8,000 megawatts of electricity have been added to the national grid through coal, hydropower, solar, and wind projects. These include the Hub coal power plant in Balochistan, which has helped stabilise electricity supply and ease the province’s long standing energy shortages.

Connectivity across the province has also improved. Road projects such as the Khuzdar Basima Road, Surab Hoshab (N 85), the Hoshab Gwadar (M 8) motorway, and the Gwadar Eastbay Expressway have linked remote areas with national markets. Officials say travel time between Quetta and Gwadar has fallen from 24 to 36 hours to around eight hours.

Gwadar Port, supported by the New Gwadar International Airport and a Free Zone, is being positioned as a logistics and trade hub aimed at integrating Pakistan into regional and global supply chains.

The Planning Commission says CPEC has created more than 200,000 direct jobs nationwide, with thousands tied to projects in Balochistan. As CPEC enters its second phase, the focus is shifting toward Special Economic Zones, agriculture, minerals, information technology, and local value creation to broaden the development base.

Agriculture remains the backbone of Balochistan’s economy, with horticulture its leading sub sector. Often described as Pakistan’s fruit basket, the province produces much of the country’s cherries, grapes, almonds, dates, and apples. However, its share in agricultural exports remains limited due to weak value chains, water shortages, and a lack of storage and processing facilities.

Under CPEC linked initiatives, officials say mechanisation, modern irrigation, and high tech farming practices are being introduced in partnership with Chinese and international institutions. These measures are expected to raise agricultural output by 25 to 30 per cent and improve access to export markets.

The livestock sector, which supports around 70 per cent of the province’s population directly or indirectly, is also seen as a growth driver. Balochistan holds a significant share of Pakistan’s sheep, goats, and camels, with cooperation in breeding technologies and veterinary training expected to boost productivity.

Beyond land based sectors, analysts point to Balochistan’s long coastline as an underdeveloped blue economy. Fisheries, mangroves, coastal tourism, and marine biodiversity could generate employment and foreign exchange if developed sustainably. Gwadar, Astola Island, Kund Malir, and Hingol National Park are frequently cited as high potential tourism sites.

The province’s mineral reserves, estimated by some experts to be worth trillions of dollars, underscore its global relevance. Projects such as Saindak and Reko Diq highlight Balochistan’s role in mineral supply chains, though local communities continue to argue that extraction has failed to deliver broad based prosperity.

Analysts supporting CPEC say transparent mining practices, fair revenue sharing, and local employment could help reduce grievances. The province’s vast land area and climatic conditions also make it suitable for large scale solar and wind energy projects aligned with Pakistan’s climate objectives.

Despite development gains, security remains the single largest risk to CPEC’s progress in Balochistan. The province has faced repeated insurgencies since 2006, with militant attacks targeting infrastructure, security forces, and increasingly Chinese nationals and CPEC assets. Officials say dozens of attacks in recent years have delayed projects, raised costs, and weakened investor confidence.

Thousands of security personnel have been deployed to protect CPEC projects at an annual cost of billions of rupees. Analysts argue, however, that security measures alone are insufficient and that unresolved political, economic, and governance grievances continue to fuel instability.

Critics also point to a governance gap, noting that key CPEC decisions are often made at the federal level with limited provincial and local participation, reinforcing centre periphery tensions. Greater transparency, community engagement, and a stronger role for local governments are widely seen as necessary for long term success.

Analysts broadly agree that CPEC offers a historic opportunity for Balochistan, but warn that outcomes will depend on inclusive policies, improved governance, and sustained peace. As the corridor moves deeper into its second phase, they say the challenge is to ensure development translates into durable livelihoods and stability, not just physical infrastructure.