SBP projects 3.75–4.75% growth, 5–7% inflation for FY2025-26

State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad told a Senate panel on Wednesday that it expects economic growth of 3.75% to 4.75% and inflation in the 5% to 7% range during the current fiscal year despite regional conflict and global uncertainty.

Briefing the Senate Standing Committee on Finance, the SBP governor said Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities stand at $138 billion, including $103 billion in public external debt. He also said exports have fallen 7%.

He said the central bank purchased $24 billion from the market over the last three years, which he said supported exchange rate stability and strengthened external buffers. He added reserves were not built through additional external borrowing.

The governor said public external debt rose from $55 billion in 2015 to $103 billion in 2022, but has not increased over the past four years. He said total external debt and liabilities have increased by around $7 billion to reach $138 billion.

He said foreign exchange reserves are at $16.2 billion and projected to rise to $18 billion by June and $20 billion by December 2026. He also warned that international oil prices could climb to about $100 per barrel if regional conflicts persist for a prolonged period.

Despite that risk, he said the current account deficit is expected to remain within 0% to 1% of GDP even if petroleum prices rise. He added workers’ remittances are projected at $42 billion in the current fiscal year.

The meeting, chaired by Senator Saleem Mandviwalla, was also briefed on measures linked to reserves and public debt management. The chair raised concerns over weaker exports and urged efforts to tap new markets.

The committee also discussed the Women Inclusive Finance initiative, with officials saying the allocated amount has been fully disbursed to expand women’s access to credit and support entrepreneurship. 

The chair directed authorities to submit bank-wise and province-wise data after reports of difficulties faced by women in accessing credit, and the committee asked for follow-up on issues raised in the session.