One million ton sugar export proposal raises supply concerns

A proposal by the sugar industry to export around one million tons of sugar has triggered debate over domestic supply and food security, as concerns emerge about whether current stocks are sufficient to meet local demand, according to a news report. 

Industry representatives say total sugar production is expected to reach 7.5 million tons by the end of the current season, exceeding annual domestic consumption of about 6.5 million tons.

Data from the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association shows production has already reached 7.21 million tons, with Punjab contributing 4.83 million tons, Sindh 1.93 million tons, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 452,315 tons.

The industry has urged the government to allow exports to prevent losses or alternatively purchase the surplus, while also calling for deregulation of the sector.

However, market analysts have questioned the surplus claims, pointing to stock levels that may not be sufficient to meet demand until the next crushing season.

As of mid-March, total available stock stands at 5.0 million tons, while monthly consumption averages around 0.541 million tons. Based on this consumption rate, approximately 4.33 million tons will be required to meet domestic demand until the next harvest expected in mid-November.

When additional requirements are included, such as a 0.7 million ton strategic reserve and around 0.3 million tons for supply chain needs, total required stock rises to 5.33 million tons.

This leaves a projected shortfall of more than 300,000 tons, raising concerns about the feasibility of exporting large volumes.