Gulf oil exports rebound above 10m bpd in June as Hormuz shipping recovers

Crude oil exports from the Gulf rebounded sharply in June, climbing above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed following a ceasefire, although regional exports remained significantly below levels recorded before the conflict.

Data from cargo tracking firms Kpler and Vortexa showed combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3 million bpd from May. Kpler estimated exports at 10.07 million bpd, while Vortexa put the figure slightly higher at 10.2 million bpd. Even so, shipments remained about 40 per cent below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier.

The recovery accelerated after a June 17 agreement between the United States and Iran to halt hostilities and restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball, the agreement enabled millions of barrels of crude that had been stranded in the Gulf to begin moving to international markets, reducing floating storage in the region.

Rauball said around 23 million barrels remained waiting to transit the waterway after floating storage had peaked at 96 million barrels in late April.

The UAE led the recovery, with exports rising to a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, according to Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, representing an increase of more than 1 million bpd from May.

Saudi Arabia also increased shipments, with Kpler estimating crude exports rose by 768,000 bpd to 4.52 million bpd during the month. Weekly exports reached around 6.3 million bpd, close to January levels, as the kingdom increased loadings from Ras Tanura.

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz also strengthened. Shipbroker BRS reported that 98 tankers transited the waterway between June 22 and June 28, averaging 14 vessels a day, the highest level since the conflict began. The total included 47 loaded outbound tankers and 41 ballast vessels entering the Gulf, suggesting shipowners had become more willing to deploy vessels in the region.

During the conflict, Saudi Arabia and the UAE diverted part of their exports through pipeline networks that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, while Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) also relied on tanker shuttle services to maintain exports. Similar alternatives were largely unavailable to Iraq and Kuwait.

Elsewhere, exports from Iraq and Kuwait recovered to about 800,000 bpd each, according to Vortexa. A source told Reuters that Kuwait increased production sharply to 1.65 million bpd in June, while Iranian exports climbed by more than 70 per cent to 640,000 bpd as the US blockade eased.