JPMorgan cuts gold outlook, sees $4,500 per ounce by fourth quarter

JPMorgan now expects gold prices to rise to $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter, saying demand from key sectors is unlikely to be as strong as previously expected.

The bank said risks to its forecast are tilted to the downside, particularly if stronger economic data pushes the US Federal Reserve towards earlier interest rate hikes.

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold because the metal does not offer a yield, making interest-bearing assets more attractive to investors.

The revised outlook marks a shift from JPMorgan’s June 9 forecast, when the bank said gold could rise to $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year.

Spot gold was up 1.3% at $4,174.21 per ounce by 1241 GMT on Friday after touching its highest level since June 23.

Bullion was also up more than 2% for the week.

Despite the near-term revision, JPMorgan maintained a long-term bullish view on gold.

The bank said gold could extend gains in 2027 if central bank buying and physical demand strengthen, supported by structural drivers of accumulation.

JPMorgan also forecast silver prices to average $60 to $65 per ounce over its outlook horizon as the market moves away from last year’s tight physical conditions and the gold-to-silver ratio normalises.

The bank expects platinum prices to average around $1,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 and rise to about $1,950 per ounce by the end of 2027, supported by supply-side fundamentals in South Africa.

Palladium prices are forecast at $1,350 per ounce by the end of 2026 and are expected to average around $1,300 in 2027, in line with broader weakness across precious metals.