Kakar’s uphill battle 

A flurry of activity marked Anwarul Haq Kakar’s first day in the prime minister’s office with the state of the economy seemingly the top priority for the country’s eighth caretaker prime minister. 

The first day of the caretaker setup was marked by multiple shifts in the interbank rate of the rupee as well as a massive petrol price hike which jumped by Rs 17 per liter. As far as posturing and statements are concerned the signs from Mr Kakar seem to be positive. The PM took a briefing on the implementation of the $3 billion Stand-by Arrangement in his maiden meeting on the economy and vowed to complete the programme and keep Pakistan’s economy on track. 

The task that faces the new prime minister is gargantuan. On the one hand he has the solemn constitutional duty of ensuring free, fair, and timely elections. This is the most important marker of his tenure and he already faces an uphill battle on this front because of the twilight hour announcement from the previous government that polls would be held according to the recent census. 

Already Mr Kakar has been given a 90 day mandate because Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif dissolved the national assembly early. It is unlikely that delimitations will be completed in this time frame and he will likely have a longer tenure than any caretaker prime minister in Pakistan’s history. And while elections should be the only thing that any caretaker should very well be remembered for, all eyes will be on how he manages the economy. 

The caretaker setup has come in at a time when Pakistan’s economy is facing a crisis that could be the worst in the country’s history. It must also be remembered that on the 30th of June last year Pakistan failed to complete the last IMF programme it had entered and it seemed the country had no choice but to default on its external debts. However, prime minister Shehbaz Sharif managed to achieve a stop-gap accord with the fund. The current deal Pakistan is surviving under is a $3 billion stand-by agreement that will last for a period of nine months and is higher than expected for Pakistan. Only the first tranche of this facility has been extended to Pakistan as of now. 

This stand-by-agreement ensured that whatever caretaker setup came in would not have to go beyond its constitutional limits and negotiate a programme with the fund. However, it also means that Mr Kakar must now ensure that the IMF’s conditions are met. The early signs are good. Prices of petrol have been raised and the gap between the interbank and open market rate of the dollar is quickly closing as per the IMF’s requirements. 

However, the prime minister would do well to remember that he is going to be in power for at least three of the nine months that this stop-gap agreement is in place to get the $3 billion from the IMF. The entire point of this shorter agreement was to allow caretakers to come in, conduct elections, and allow the new government to negotiate a new agreement. But if Pakistan is to be in this necessary position whenever a new government comes in, Kakar must remain committed to the course and not get creative. 

With the support of the political old guard and the establishment, the caretaker PM has claimed the continuity of the economic policies would be maintained and bring more economic improvements. He added that public welfare projects will continue. He further stated that increasing foreign investment in the country under the SIFC is among the priorities of the caretaker government.

While these are not ideal circumstances, this is exactly the role he has been picked for. Staying the course is more important than anything else at the moment.