Asian markets mostly rose Monday as investors tried to move on from last week’s upheaval fuelled by US recession worries, with the focus shifting to the release of key inflation and retail data.
After a painful collapse fuelled by a big miss on US jobs creation, equities managed to bounce back over the following days and ended Friday on a healthy note.
The gains were helped by a report showing fewer people than expected claimed unemployment benefits, soothing fears that the world’s top economy was contracting.
However, analysts warned that while some calm has returned to trading floors, traders remained on edge and were nervously awaiting the release of the next round of indicators.
The consumer price index and retail sales reports this week could provide the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates.
Expectations are that the bank will lower borrowing costs 25 basis points next month, and at least once more before January, thanks to a string of data suggesting prices have been brought under control.
Still, Fed officials offered differing views on the outlook for rates.
Governor Michelle Bowman said she still thought inflation could bounce back and remained cautious about making any reductions too early.
But Boston Fed chief Susan Collins said officials could start cutting soon if data continued to show prices were being tamed.
“The real meltdown could come if we get a double whammy: higher CPI paired with lower retail sales,” warned Stephen Innes.
“That combo would have folks running for the fire exits faster than you can yell ‘stagflation’,” he wrote in his Dark Side Of The Boom newsletter.
“And… after the latest (jobs) growth scare, a higher inflation print might do the damage all on its own.”
All three main indexes in New York ended on a positive note on Friday.
On Monday, Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Mumbai, Taipei, Jakarta and Wellington rose, as did London, Paris and Frankfurt, while Shanghai, Singapore and Manila edged down.
Tokyo was closed for a holiday.
The yen weakened following last week’s gyrations, which saw it surge to a six-month high against the dollar after the weak US jobs figures fanned Fed rate cut bets.
That came as the Bank of Japan hiked its own rates for the second time in 17 years and indicated more were in the pipeline.
Comments last week aimed at reassuring investors that it would not move while markets were volatile helped settle some nerves.
But Luca Santos at ACY Securities said: “This apparent stability might be temporary. The broader market sentiment, influenced by expectations of significant rate cuts, suggests underlying uncertainties.
“The anticipation of a cumulative 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, followed by another 100 basis points in 2025, reflects a growing belief that the Federal Reserve may need to ease monetary policy more aggressively to support economic growth.”
