Pakistan’s rice exports have declined sharply by 39% during the first four months of FY26, falling to $553 million and reversing last year’s record performance, according to the latest industry data.
The fall has added pressure on the country’s overall export outlook at a time when global commodity markets remain unstable and competition has intensified.
The setback follows an extraordinary year, when rice exports in 4MFY25 hit a historic $907 million after rising from $675 million in 4MFY24 on the back of favourable global conditions and the absence of major competitors.
Industry officials say the current decline coincides with India lifting restrictions on its rice exports, pushing large volumes into the world market and eroding Pakistan’s share and pricing power.
Long-term trends show that last year’s peak was an exception rather than the norm. Between 4MFY17 and 4MFY22, exports largely moved in the $381 million–$592 million range, aside from stronger years such as 4MFY20 ($684 million). The present figure is closer to the levels recorded four to five years ago, including $546 million in 4MFY21 and $592 million in 4MFY22. Compared to the 4MFY24 base, the latest numbers still reflect an 18% decline.
Export prices have also come under pressure. From mid-2024 onwards, export values remained in negative year-on-year territory, at times dropping below $400 per tonne during early 2025 before showing modest recovery. The decline in unit prices has compounded the volume-driven fall in earnings, weighing on the balance of payments given rice’s role as one of the country’s key foreign exchange contributors.
Exporters warn that regaining lost ground will require significant adjustment as Pakistan now faces renewed competition not only from India but also from Vietnam.
