Diesel likely to rise Rs9.47 per litre, petrol projected to fall marginally

ISLAMABAD: Petroleum product prices are projected to rise from February 1, 2026, with notable increases expected in high-speed diesel (HSD), kerosene oil and light diesel oil, while petrol may see a marginal decline, based on current pricing calculations.

According to projections for the upcoming fortnight, the anticipated changes stem from prevailing international oil market trends and exchange rate factors. Officials clarified that international prices for the last two days have not yet been incorporated into the calculations; however, this omission is not expected to materially change the final prices.

At the ex-refinery level, high-speed diesel is projected to increase by Rs 9.47 per litre, moving up from Rs 154.64 to Rs 164.11. Kerosene oil is expected to rise by Rs 3.69 per litre, from Rs 141.60 to Rs 145.29, while light diesel oil may see an increase of Rs 6.95 per litre, climbing from Rs 124.64 to Rs 131.59. 

In contrast, petrol is projected to register a slight reduction of 36 paisa per litre, easing from Rs 141.00 to Rs 140.64.

The impact on consumers will be more visible at the ex-depot level, particularly for diesel, which plays a critical role in the broader economy. The ex-depot sale price of high-speed diesel is projected to rise by Rs 9.47 per litre to Rs 266.55, compared to the current Rs 257.08. Diesel is widely used in transport, agriculture, and power generation, and any increase is expected to translate into higher freight costs, increased food prices, and overall inflationary pressure.

Kerosene oil, primarily used by lower-income households for cooking and lighting, especially in remote and off-grid areas, is projected to increase by Rs 3.69 per litre to Rs 174.57 from Rs 170.88. The rise is likely to add to the cost-of-living burden for vulnerable segments of the population.

Light diesel oil, which is commonly used in industrial boilers, generators and certain agricultural machinery, is expected to climb by Rs 6.95 per litre, pushing its ex-depot price up to Rs 153.13 from Rs 146.18. Higher LDO prices may increase operational costs for small industries and farms reliant on diesel-powered equipment.

Petrol, mainly consumed by private cars and motorcycles and directly affecting urban commuters, is projected to see a marginal decline of 36 paisa, bringing its ex-depot price down to Rs 252.81 from Rs 253.17. However, the slight reduction is unlikely to provide any meaningful relief to consumers amid rising prices of other fuels.

Despite the exclusion of the last two days’ international price data, industry sources indicated that the projected figures remain largely stable, suggesting that consumers should be prepared for higher fuel costs from the start of February, particularly due to the sharp increase in diesel prices and its knock-on effect on the economy.