Distributed solar in Pakistan undercounted in official data, could replace billions in fossil fuel imports

Pakistan’s energy transition is significantly underrepresented in official statistics, with distributed solar already supplying nearly a fifth of national electricity and offsetting fossil fuel use, according to a new study by think-tank Renewables First.

The research, Electrons In, Hydrocarbons Out: Pakistan’s Quest for Economic and Resource Efficiency, finds that households, farms, and businesses are installing solar PV to cope with high electricity costs and unreliable supply, creating a parallel energy system largely invisible to government reporting.

In fiscal year 2023-24 alone, distributed solar could have generated 19 terawatt-hours (TWh), displacing about 5 million tonnes of oil equivalent. Between 2017 and 2025, Pakistan imported $7.4 billion in solar panels and $2–3 billion in inverters and other equipment, forming long-term generation assets rather than fuel consumption. By June 2025, around 48 GW of solar PV had been imported, potentially saving $100–120 billion in future fuel imports over its lifetime.

The study highlights that imported fossil fuels are inefficient: about 59% of energy value is lost, whereas solar converts upfront imports into decades of domestic electricity. Experts said the shift reduces macroeconomic exposure to volatile fuel markets and strengthens energy resilience.

Senior Fellow Sohaib Malik and co-author Nabiya Imran said the findings provide a more accurate basis for policymakers to plan for energy security and sustainable growth, noting Pakistan’s energy demand has shifted into a form the system was never designed to track.