Import composition shifts in 7MFY26 as transport, metals surge; exports show narrow gains

Pakistan’s trade profile in the first seven months of FY26 reveals a changing import mix and uneven export performance, with strong growth in transport and metal imports offsetting a modest decline in the petroleum bill, while export gains remain concentrated in a few sectors.

According to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) petroleum imports stood at $9.0 billion in 7MFY26, down 4% year-on-year. The reduction in the oil import bill offered some cushion to the overall trade account, particularly given the historically large share of energy in Pakistan’s total imports.

However, the relief from lower petroleum imports was overshadowed by significant increases in other categories. Transport group imports nearly doubled, rising 94% YoY to $2.3 billion. The sharp increase reflects a strong rebound in the import of road motor vehicles, completely knocked down (CKD) kits and related components, suggesting a revival in the auto sector’s activity compared to last year’s constrained environment.

Metal group imports also recorded robust growth, increasing 19% YoY to $3.9 billion. Higher imports of iron and steel scrap, iron and steel products, and aluminum goods point toward improving industrial activity and construction-related demand. This trend may indicate stronger domestic manufacturing momentum, though it also adds to the overall import burden.

Meanwhile, agriculture and other chemical imports rose 9% YoY to $6.3 billion in 7MFY26. This category includes fertilizers, plastic materials, medicinal products and other chemical inputs critical for both agriculture and industry. The increase suggests sustained input demand across key sectors of the economy.

On the export side, the picture remains mixed and relatively subdued. Textile exports — Pakistan’s largest foreign exchange earner — reached $10.9 billion in 7MFY26, registering only 1% YoY growth. Within textiles, segments such as knitwear, bed wear and readymade garments showed incremental gains, but the overall expansion remained modest, reflecting continued pricing pressures and competitive challenges in global markets.

Food exports, by contrast, declined sharply by 35% YoY to $3.0 billion. The steep contraction weighed heavily on aggregate export performance and likely reflects a high base effect from last year alongside lower shipments in key food categories.

A notable bright spot was the IT sector. In December 2025, IT exports rose 25.6% YoY to $437 million. The steady growth in technology and computer services exports underscores the sector’s increasing role in diversifying Pakistan’s export base beyond traditional goods.

Other sector exports, including leather, engineering goods, chemicals and cement, totaled $2.4 billion in 7MFY26, down 5% YoY, indicating mixed performance across smaller manufacturing segments.

Taken together, the data highlights a widening divergence: while the petroleum import bill has moderated, rising transport and industrial imports are reshaping the import basket. On the export side, growth remains narrow, with textiles barely expanding and food exports contracting sharply, leaving overall trade performance dependent on a limited set of sectors.