The Punjab govt is pushing farmers to grow more cotton. Can they hit their 7 lakh acre target? 

In cotton land, spring has come early. In Punjab, early sowing of cotton has started as part of a government-led campaign to encourage the expansion of acreage under cultivation. The Punjab government has set a target of bringing at least 700,000 acres of land under early-sown cotton in the divisions of Multan, Sahiwal, Faisalabad, Sargodha, and DG Khan. Multan Division alone is marked for 315,000 acres of such cotton.

For all this, it must be mentioned that this government push is not part of an immemorial tradition, but a recent phenomenon. The government launched this drive in 2025, when it announced a 2.5 billion plan to encourage early cotton cultivation, by providing eligible farmers with financial incentives. These mainly took the form of Pkr 25,000 per five acres of cotton sown earlier in the season.

There is a reason why early farming is drawing the government’s attention. And it is not simply in Punjab that the practice is increasing. High temperatures, reaching up to 35 degrees, in cities in Sindh, including Thatta, Badin, Gharu, Golarchi, Mirpur, and Tando Muhammad Khan have prompted the early sowing of cotton in these areas as well.

The reason is twofold, one, that early cotton-sowing promises higher and better yields, and second, this is a plan to encourage farmers to plant cotton on more land. The reason behind this is not hard to grasp. Cotton, a veritable pillar of our agricultural sector, not only provides employment to the millions but also sustains the textile sector which constitutes between 50 and 60 percent of our export earnings.

Yet, while this push for early cotton seems a well-directed way of increasing Pakistan’s cotton production (both by yield and acreage), the real effect of such initiatives requires broader reforms in the whole economic ecosystem surrounding cotton, particularly through the textile value chain. Pending greater reforms in that area, such measures to encourage cotton production might in fact become obstructed by policy and infrastructural constraints, and fail to bear the desired fruit. And the dream of a lower import bill and higher foreign exchange earnings might not be in our grasp as easily as one is led to hope.

Why sow cotton early?

At one point setting the cotton crop early was frowned upon, with concerns that this made them more vulnerable to pests discouraging farmers from jumping the gun. Yet, recent investigations into the real impact on the timing of the sowing of the cotton crop reveal real advantages, particularly in a climate such as Pakistan’s which can get very hot in the plains during the summer, often approaching late 40 degrees.

A recent white paper issued by the Economic Policy and Business Development think tank examined the potential for cotton resurgence in Pakistan through the adoption of early-sowing practices. Surveying scientific literature on such practices, the white paper laid out the potential benefits of sowing cotton earlier in the season, i.e., during March and April.

This practice, if done properly, leads to the establishment of stronger roots and enable deep and sustained vegetative growth before the extreme heat of the summer sets on. In fact, it was found that in early-sown cotton, flowering increased by 10 percent, while boll opening was enhanced by around 23 percent, leading to a healthier development of the fruit. The fact that planting early extends the growth time means that the plant can produce fruit over a longer period. This practice has also been found to lead to greater efficiency of photosynthesis, as well as more dry matter accumulation. As compared to late-sown cotton, the early-sown cotton has also better fibre quality, with improved length, strength, and micronaire values.

Moreover, it was also found that sowing cotton early might, contrary to general fears, help reduce the onset of specific pests and diseases. For instance, cotton leaf curl virus infests early-sown cotton “significantly” less than cotton planted later. At the same time, early-sown cotton has been shown to lead to 14-35 percent increases in yield compared to late-sown cotton.

Ideally, these higher yields would lead to more money from the same area of land for the farmers, and would encourage them to plant more cotton. From this it can be extrapolated that the local production of cotton would rise, and help sustain Pakistan’s textile industry, and reduce our reliance upon imported cotton. This would then ideally lead to a net positive impact on the foreign exchange balance.

Yet, in Pakistan, this line is not so straight, but it is crooked. Let us examine.

Cotton Pakistan:

Cotton is one of Pakistan’s largest crops, and one where Pakistan actually grows world-class cotton, making its export competitive. Yet the fact remains that cotton planting and harvesting has been in a decline over the past few decades. This is not only by acreage, but also by the amount of cotton that is produced.

 There are multiple reasons behind this. On the level of the crop, it has seen little investment from the public or the private sector into the development of modern seeds, which bring about better yields. The result has been over-reliance on outdated seed which is not only not very high-yielding, but also is more susceptible to disease and pests. At the same time, there has been comparatively little by way of government incentive to encourage farmers to plant more cotton.

This situation has been exacerbated by the fact that competing crops, especially ones that have become more lucrative and do not have the kind of risks associated with cotton planting, have been encroaching upon the land traditionally reserved for cotton. One such crop is the sugarcane, which does not really care for high temperatures that might otherwise ravage a cotton crop. At the same time, there is a consistent market for sugarcane, and the political influence of most large sugar barons has ensured that sugarcane flourishes at the expense of the fluffy crop.

The result has been that the local textile industry – which is the backbone of our exports – has had to increasingly rely on imports of cotton to fuel their activities. This has meant that a crop that traditionally would have made, on its own, Pakistan’s textile sector competitive by ensuring access to cheap and locally-produced cotton, has had to take a back seat. This has led to an increase in our import bill on the one hand. And on the other hand, it has reduced margins for textile exporters, who now have to import more expensive cotton from abroad. 

Now, more production of local cotton would certainly help the situation by enabling local textile producers to rely on homegrown cotton. This is, of course, provided the government’s plans to encourage early-sowing do not run the way of most government plans, and are actually fruitful in achieving their objectives. But let us assume that this is what happens, we produce more cotton. But will this translate into a corresponding increase in the output of the textile industry and an increase in the foreign exchange our textile exports might bring?

That is a contested question, not simply because the economics of the textile industry have to do with more than simply cotton. The industry is subject to an oppressive tax regime, which reduces the potential of exports and actually acts as a disincentive. This is because not only are textile manufacturers taxed on their incomes (which is fair), but they are also taxed on export proceeds – meaning the amount they could use to reinvest in the business often goes to the government coffers. In fact, the effective tax rate on textile exporters might reach 135 percent of profits, discouraging exports and encouraging textile exports to focus on local markets instead.

And, this is not the only problem. The local textile industry is very energy-intensive, and has been suffering from issues related to their access to cheap power. According to some estimates, around 40 to 45 percent of the inputs in the textile-making process are dependent on electricity. Considering that the country relies majorly on imports for its energy mix, this exposed textile producers to the vicissitudes of forex rates as well as geopolitical risk. The prices have on the whole been rising. As such, the higher price of electricity directly has directly impacted the profitability of the textile producer, eroding their competitiveness in the global market against giants such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and China.

In such a context, simply increasing the production of cotton – through early-sowing, in this case – cannot be sufficient to bring in the positive impact on exports, and buttressing the local textile industry. That would require not only more government incentives to cultivate cotton through tax breaks and loan facilities as well as guaranteed prices to protect against any force majeure. At the same time, the government must encourage the usage of renewable energy sources, and revisit the current tariff structure which is much higher than international standards. Of course, measures must also be taken to actually encourage exports. These might include the elimination (or refund) of export taxes, export-linked subsidies, and government-led campaigns to take local brands to the international level, either through state-partnerships, logistical support, and so on.

Early-sown cotton therefore can be understood as a step that is welcome no doubt, since it will likely increase local production and reduce reliance on imports. Yet, for the benefits to fully materialise in the textile sector, this crop-related measure should be supplemented with a broader government policy effort to support textile exporters through tax and energy costing incentives.