Qatar energy minister says Iran war could push oil to $150 a barrel

Qatar expects Gulf energy exporters to suspend shipments within weeks if the conflict involving Iran continues and oil prices rise to around $150 a barrel, the country’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said in an interview with the Financial Times published Friday.

Kaabi said energy producers across the Gulf could be forced to declare force majeure if the conflict continues.

“Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call a force majeure,” he told the newspaper.

Qatar halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production on Monday as Iran continued missile strikes on Gulf countries following Israeli and US attacks.

Qatar’s LNG output accounts for about 20% of global supply and plays a key role in supplying energy to Asian and European markets.

Kaabi warned that a prolonged conflict could have wider economic consequences.

“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” he said.

He added that rising energy prices could trigger supply disruptions across industries.

“Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” he said.

Even if hostilities stopped immediately, Kaabi said it could take weeks to months for LNG deliveries to return to normal.

The conflict could also delay QatarEnergy’s North Field expansion project, which was scheduled to start production in mid-2026.

“It will delay all our expansion plans for sure,” Kaabi said. “If we come back in a week, perhaps the effect is minimal; if it’s a month or two, it is different.”

Kaabi also said crude prices could rise to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.

The Strait of Hormuz is the main export route for Gulf oil shipments linking producers to global markets.

He added that gas prices could reach $40 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) if supply disruptions persist.