Govt considers load-shedding, tariff hike as LNG shortage threatens summer power supply

The federal government is preparing a strategy that may include load-shedding, conservation measures and tariff adjustments to manage electricity demand during the summer amid fuel shortages linked to the Middle East crisis, Dawn reported. 

Officials said the Power Division is working on multiple options to balance rising demand with reduced availability of liquefied natural gas and coal, along with higher costs of alternative fuels.

They said LNG supplies are expected to drop to near zero from next month, despite the fuel accounting for more than 21 percent of power generation. Coal availability is also projected to remain low, with both fuels together contributing about 30 percent of electricity supply.

Furnace oil is being considered as a replacement fuel, although its generation cost is significantly higher. Officials said furnace oil-based power costs around Rs35 per unit, compared with Rs20 for LNG and Rs13.50 for imported coal.

They estimated that reduced utilisation of LNG-based plants could lead to fuel cost adjustments of around Rs10–12 per unit, though passing the full increase to consumers may not be feasible.

High-speed diesel, with generation costs exceeding Rs80 per unit, is not being considered due to its cost and demand in transport and agriculture.

Summer electricity demand is expected to rise to 27,000–28,000 megawatts, compared with current peak demand of less than 14,000MW, partly due to increased solar usage reducing grid dependence.

Given the constraints, officials said daily load-shedding of two to three hours may be implemented, alongside conservation measures and fuel cost adjustments through existing mechanisms.

Gas supply to the power sector is also expected to decline, with only about 80mmcfd available from April, compared with 150mmcfd in March. Supplies to the CNG sector may be suspended and gas to fertiliser plants partially diverted to support power generation.

Officials also pointed to operational challenges, including reduced coal transport due to disputes involving Pakistan Railways, affecting output from key plants such as Sahiwal and Jamshoro.

These plants currently generate around 1,500–2,000MW, and disruptions could lead to an additional 2.5 to 3 hours of load-shedding if fuel stocks, currently sufficient for only three to seven days, are depleted.

The government is expected to finalise its strategy based on fuel availability and demand conditions in the coming weeks.