Oil sales surge in March despite price hikes, Middle East tensions to hit April demand

Pakistan’s oil sales rose sharply in March, but demand is expected to soften in April as higher fuel prices and the ongoing US–Iran conflict begin to impact consumption, according to reports by two research firms. 

Data compiled by Topline Securities and IMS Research shows that Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.44 million tons in March 2026, up 19% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month. The increase came despite rising petroleum prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Cumulatively, OMCs sales reached 12.4 million tons in 9MFY26, reflecting a 5% increase compared to the same period last year. Excluding furnace oil, March sales stood at 1.36 million tons, up 17% YoY and 10% MoM, while 9MFY26 volumes rose 7% YoY to 12 million tons.

Product-wise, motor spirit (MS) sales increased 16% YoY and 8% MoM to 670,000 tons, while high-speed diesel (HSD) remained the primary growth driver, rising 21% YoY and 13% MoM to 590,000 tons. Analysts attributed the rise in diesel sales to reduced smuggling and disruptions in informal fuel flows amid the US–Iran conflict.

Furnace oil (FO) sales surged 62% YoY and 98% MoM to 88,000 tons, although it continued to account for a small share of total volumes. Analysts noted that supply disruptions in RLNG could shift some power generation demand toward FO in the coming months.

On a company basis, Pakistan State Oil recorded a 23% YoY increase in March sales, while Attock Petroleum posted an 8% YoY rise. Wafi Energy reported 17% YoY growth, whereas Hascol Petroleum saw a 9% decline.

Petroleum prices rose significantly during the month, with MS prices increasing 21% to an average of Rs310.17 per litre and HSD prices rising 19% to Rs324.86 per litre. Despite this, demand remained firm, supported by improving economic activity and better enforcement against smuggling.

Topline expects oil sales to decline in April, as elevated petroleum prices are likely to dampen demand. The government may increase fuel prices, given that the Price Differential Claim (PDC) has risen to Rs96 per litre for petrol and Rs204 per litre for diesel.

IMS Research said that OMC volumetric growth remains robust in March, primarily reflecting a gradual economic recovery alongside ongoing government initiatives to curb smuggling to meet fiscal targets. However, the recent spike in global oil prices and the likelihood of further hikes in domestic petroleum prices are expected to dampen demand, potentially subduing sequential volumes in the coming months.