Pakistan faces 15–35% irrigation shortfall during Kharif despite higher water availability

Pakistan is expected to face a 15–35 per cent irrigation shortfall during the ongoing kharif sowing season despite improved water availability, according to decisions taken by the Indus River System Authority (Irsa).

The Irsa Advisory Committee approved a 15 per cent system shortfall for April and 35 per cent for early kharif covering April to June 10, with a review scheduled in the first week of May. The shortfall for the late kharif period was estimated at 5 per cent.

The projections come despite reservoir carryover storage reaching 3.3 million acre-feet (MAF) on April 7, the highest level recorded in six to seven years. Overall water availability for the season is also estimated to be stronger compared to the past decade.

Officials indicated that system constraints, including delays in infrastructure projects, are contributing to the gap. Delays in the completion of key components at Tarbela dam, along with operational limitations in the irrigation network, have affected water distribution.

According to officials from the Ministry of Water Resources, the season began with 2.3 MAF of carryover storage on April 1, which increased by about 1 MAF due to rainfall and expected inflows from the Kabul River. Provinces have not yet submitted irrigation indents, citing sufficient availability at this stage.

The committee was informed that Tunnel-5 at Tarbela dam, initially scheduled for completion in June 2025, has been pushed to August 2027. However, authorities stated that the delay may not affect system performance if Tunnel-4 and the Low Level Outlet are completed by May as planned.

For the full kharif season from April to September, total inflows at rim stations are projected at 103.30 MAF, including 24.48 MAF during early kharif and 78.81 MAF in the later phase.

System losses in the Indus zone were estimated at 25 per cent for April and 35 per cent for the period from May 1 to June 10, with a reassessment planned based on actual flow observations.