Pakistan may face urea shortage of up to 500,000 tonnes in Rabi 2026–27

Pakistan may face a urea shortfall of up to 500,000 tonnes during the Rabi 2026–27 season, according to projections presented by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, citing supply constraints and rising demand.

According to a news report, the ministry’s assessment indicates that urea availability during Kharif 2026 remains highly dependent on the operational status of key plants, including Fatima Fertilizer, FFC Port Qasim and Agritech. Supply risks increase significantly if these facilities remain partially or fully shut.

Under the most constrained scenario for Kharif 2026—where Fatima Fertilizer and FFC Port Qasim remain closed and Agritech operates only partially—total availability is projected at 3.478 million tonnes, including 0.8 million tonnes of opening inventory and 2.678 million tonnes of domestic production. With estimated offtake of 3.364 million tonnes, closing inventory would fall to 114,000 tonnes, resulting in a negative buffer stock of 186,000 tonnes.

For the Rabi 2026–27 season under the same assumptions, total availability is projected at 3.332 million tonnes, including 181,000 tonnes of opening inventory and 3.151 million tonnes of production. Against expected offtake of 3.486 million tonnes, closing inventory would turn negative at 154,000 tonnes, with buffer stock declining further to negative 454,000 tonnes.

In a relatively improved scenario where only FFC Port Qasim remains shut during Kharif and all plants resume operations from October, total availability for Rabi is estimated at 3.631 million tonnes. After offtake of 3.486 million tonnes, closing inventory would stand at 145,000 tonnes, still resulting in a negative buffer stock of 155,000 tonnes.

Officials noted that urea offtake is expected to increase during Kharif 2026 due to improved farm economics compared to last year. A significant price gap between domestic and international markets—Rs4,500 versus Rs14,000 per 50kg bag—may also encourage cross-border smuggling, further tightening local supply.

The ministry emphasised that uninterrupted operations of all ten domestic urea plants will be critical to maintaining supply and preventing price increases.

Data for the ongoing Rabi 2025–26 season shows total availability at 4.38 million tonnes, including 1.148 million tonnes of opening stock and 3.232 million tonnes of production. Of this, 3.563 million tonnes were consumed, leaving an estimated closing inventory of around 0.8 million tonnes and a buffer stock of approximately 0.5 million tonnes until March 2026.

The ministry has assumed zero urea imports in its projections for the coming months.

On the DAP side, supply conditions remain relatively stable based on historical demand trends, although international price movements and exchange rate fluctuations continue to influence domestic pricing.

Officials said policy measures will be required to ensure adequate fertilizer supply, manage demand and limit smuggling to support agricultural output in upcoming crop cycles.