Iran war could push over 30 million into poverty, UNDP warns

More than 30 million people could be pushed back into poverty due to the ongoing Iran war, driven by disruptions in fuel and fertiliser supplies at a critical time for global agriculture, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said.

UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo said fertiliser shortages, worsened by restrictions on cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz, have already reduced agricultural productivity and are expected to affect crop yields later this year.

He warned that food insecurity is likely to worsen in the coming months, alongside broader economic impacts, including energy shortages and declining remittances.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key global trade route, carries about one-third of the world’s fertiliser supply, much of which is produced in the Middle East. Ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States have disrupted flows through the corridor.

International institutions, including the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the World Food Programme, have already cautioned that the conflict will increase food prices and place additional pressure on vulnerable populations.

De Croo said the economic impact of the crisis has already reduced global output by an estimated 0.5% to 0.8% of GDP.

The conflict is also affecting humanitarian operations, with rising needs and shrinking funding in regions already facing crises such as Sudan, Gaza and Ukraine.

He said the effects of the conflict are expected to persist even if hostilities end, as disruptions to supply chains and livelihoods continue to impact global economic conditions.