SBP expects forex reserves to exceed $18 billion by June

• Jameel Ahmad says FY26 repayments seen at $25.4 billion, with $21.2 billion settled or rolled over, $2.7 billion expected rollover and $1.5 billion due in coming months

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) expects its foreign exchange reserves to exceed $18 billion by June 2026, despite significant external debt repayments in recent months.

In its post-monetary policy statement, the central bank said reserves stood at around $15.8 billion as of April 24, 2026, after repayments of $3.5 billion to the United Arab Emirates and $1.3 billion against a Eurobond. The impact of these outflows was partly offset by fresh external financing, including Eurobond issuance, marking Pakistan’s return to international capital markets after more than four years.

The central bank said external financing through bilateral arrangements and capital market activity has helped maintain reserve levels despite ongoing debt servicing requirements.

It added that a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund was reached on March 27, 2026, while consecutive current account surpluses in February and March resulted in a cumulative surplus for the July–March FY26 period.

According to the SBP, the external account has been supported by workers’ remittances, although projections for the current fiscal year have been revised downward. Remittance inflows are now expected to reach $41 billion, compared to an earlier estimate of $42 billion.

Governor Jameel Ahmad said remittance inflows remain stable and are expected to stay close to recent averages in April 2026.

The central bank noted that the current account for FY26 is likely to remain near the lower end of the previously projected range due to external pressures, including adverse movements in terms of trade.

On the debt front, total repayments for FY26 are estimated at $25.4 billion. Of this, $21.2 billion has already been repaid or rolled over, while an additional $2.7 billion is expected to be rolled over. The remaining $1.5 billion is scheduled for repayment in the coming months, according to data cited by Topline Securities based on the governor’s briefing.

The SBP said maintaining and strengthening foreign exchange buffers remains a priority amid uncertain global economic conditions.