Pakistan’s inflation hits 10.9% in April, returns to double digits after 21 months

The reading exceeded the Ministry of Finance’s forecast range of 8–9% outlined in its Monthly Economic Update, underscoring stronger-than-expected price pressures amid supply-side constraints linked to Middle East tensions.

On a month-on-month basis, the consumer price index increased by 2.5% in April, compared with a 1.2% rise in March and a 0.8% decline in April last year. Inflation had stood at 7.3% in March 2026 and 0.3% in April 2025.

The uptick in inflation comes alongside a policy response from the State Bank of Pakistan, which raised its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 11.5% earlier this week, marking its first hike in three years.

Urban inflation climbed to 11.1% year-on-year in April, up from 7.4% in March, while rural inflation rose to 10.6% from 7.2% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, urban prices increased 2.7% and rural prices 2.1%.

For the July–April period of the current fiscal year, average inflation stood at 6.19%, compared with 4.73% in the same period last year.

Analysts had already signalled a higher print. Muhammad Shahroz, Head of Research at Insight Securities, had projected inflation at around 10.1% for April, citing base effects and sustained increases in food and housing costs, along with higher retail fuel and LPG prices.