Nepra questions plan to expand Pakistan’s power generation capacity to 64,000 megawatts by 2035

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has raised multiple concerns over the proposed Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025-35, under which Pakistan’s installed power generation capacity is projected to increase by 49% to 64,035 megawatts by 2035 from 43,069 megawatts in 2024, Business Recorder reported. 

According to the proposed plan, several major hydropower projects, including 2,160 megawatts Dasu Hydropower Project, 800 megawatts Mohmand Hydropower Project and 4,500 megawatts Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project, have faced delays in their commercial operation dates compared to projections in IGCEP 2024-34.

The revised plan also includes 3,109 megawatts of renewable energy projects under market-based induction, resulting in changes to transmission and evacuation infrastructure timelines.

Nepra questioned the justification for further capacity additions despite existing surplus electricity generation and declining power demand.

The regulator also asked why future demand projections appeared unrealistic and on what basis they were being used to support additional expansion of generation capacity.

Among other concerns, Nepra questioned why committed projects of provincial governments and K-Electric had not been fully incorporated into the planning process and why detailed consultations with distribution companies had not been conducted regarding planning data and transparency.

The authority further questioned inconsistencies between the submitted IGCEP and Transmission System Expansion Plan and asked why the impact of additional capacity on end-consumer tariffs had not been assessed.

Nepra also sought clarification on plant factors of generation units operating on low British thermal unit gas, installed capacity discrepancies, commercial operation date assumptions and lack of independent third-party review of the plan.

According to the government, distribution companies have reported a sharp decline in grid-connected electricity consumption despite consistency in country-level and spatial load forecasts between Transmission System Expansion Plan 2024-34 and IGCEP 2025-35.

National Grid Company attributed the decline to economic slowdown and rapid growth in rooftop solar and net-metering installations. However, long-term planners maintained that the trend was temporary and not sufficient to alter transmission expansion plans at this stage.

The revised analysis also projected a substantial increase in electricity exports from the national grid to K-Electric, which are expected to rise to 3,456 megawatts by 2035 compared to earlier estimates of 2,050 megawatts.

However, officials stated that the increased exports had not yet been incorporated into the addendum pending cost comparison studies and system reinforcement assessments by K-Electric and National Grid Company.

For the June 2027 peak demand scenario, the revised plan now assumes only one 360-megawatt unit of Dasu Hydropower Project instead of three units previously projected, while no contribution from Mohmand Hydropower Project has been included.

Similarly, for the June 2029 scenario, no contribution from Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project has been incorporated due to project delays, although earlier assumptions included five units of 375 megawatts each.

For the July-August 2034 peak demand scenario, all 12 units of Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project have been included along with around 1,400 megawatts of wind power projects optimised under IGCEP.