Pakistan’s population may reach 390 million by 2050, adding 256 million people to job market: report

Pakistan’s population could rise to 390 million by 2050, adding around 148 million people over the next 25 years, while the number of working-age people entering the job market may reach 256 million, according to an official population projection report launched on Tuesday.

The Population Projections Report 2023-2050, prepared in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), was launched by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal. The report uses the 2023 population census as the base year, when Pakistan’s population stood at 241.9 million.

According to the report, under the “slow fertility decline scenario”, Pakistan’s total population is projected to increase by 62% to 390 million by 2050.

Under a “rapid fertility decline scenario”, where birth rates decline sharply, the population is projected to reach 371.9 million by 2050, an increase of 54% from the base year.

In a third scenario based on evidence-based contraceptive use across provinces and Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan’s population is projected to increase to 383.2 million by 2050.

The report stated that the number of children below 18 years of age is expected to increase from 118 million to 139.7 million by 2050, while the working-age population between 15 and 64 years could rise from 135.2 million to 255.4 million, showing an increase of 89%.

It added that the youth population aged between 15 and 29 years is projected to grow from 63 million to 100 million during the same period, while the elderly population aged 65 and above could increase from 8.6 million to 22.6 million.

The report noted that the rapid growth in working-age population could create a demographic dividend if accompanied by investment in education, healthcare and employment opportunities.

However, the report highlighted that Pakistan’s current economic growth trajectory may not be sufficient to absorb the expanding labour force.

It stated that the country required sustainable annual economic growth of 6% to 8% to create jobs for the growing workforce, while the economy has been expanding at an average pace of around 3.5%.

According to the report, Punjab’s population is projected to increase from 128 million in 2023 to 200 million by 2050 under the slow fertility decline scenario, while Sindh’s population may rise from 56 million to 91.2 million.

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s population is expected to increase from 41 million to 68 million, while Balochistan’s population could rise from 14.7 million to 25 million, recording the highest percentage increase among provinces at 68%.

The report also projected Islamabad Capital Territory’s population to nearly triple from 2.3 million in 2023 to 6.5 million by 2050.

Addressing the launching ceremony, Ahsan Iqbal said uncontrolled population growth had become a major challenge for sustainable development, economic progress and effective utilisation of resources.

The planning minister also proposed incentives under the National Finance Commission Award for provinces that successfully controlled population growth, saying balanced population growth was necessary for Pakistan’s sustainable development and economic stability.

He said that 82% of resource distribution under the National Finance Commission Award was linked to population share and called for reforms to encourage provinces to adopt population management policies.