Gold steady as traders weigh Israel-Iran ceasefire, inflation risks

Gold prices were largely steady ‌on Tuesday as traders assessed a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran and also watched out for signs of progress in the broader Middle East conflict, with concerns over inflation ​and interest rate hikes in focus.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,333.91 ​per ounce, as of 0404 GMT. In the previous session, bullion ⁠touched its lowest point in more than two months. U.S. gold futures for ​August delivery were down 0.1% at $4,358.80.

"Gold is trading muted, with traders sceptical about ​the durability of the Iran-Israel ceasefire and remaining cautious ahead of this week's important U.S. inflation data, which will help shape the Fed's policy outlook," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst ​at KCM Trade.

Iran and Israel said on Monday they had halted attacks on ​each other after an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump, though Tehran warned it would resume ‌hostilities ⁠if Israel continued to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Goldman Sachs said it expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged through 2026 and delay rate cuts until 2027, citing stronger economic activity and jobs growth.

Traders are now pricing in ​a more than ​70% chance of ⁠a Fed rate hike by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

Investors are bracing for May's U.S. Consumer Price Index ​data, due on Wednesday, to gauge the Fed's monetary policy ​path.

"A return ⁠to $5,500 for gold remains viable by year-end driven in part by central bank demand, but it will likely require cooperation from oil prices, bond yields and the ⁠dollar, ​which would all need to take a turn ​lower," Waterer said.

Spot silver fell 0.5% to $67.85 per ounce, platinum lost 0.1% to $1,752.45, while palladium rose 1% ​to $1,216.42.