FBR projects Rs14.5tr tax collection for FY2026-27 without new measures

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has projected tax collection of Rs14.5 trillion for FY2026-27, excluding the impact of any new taxation or budgetary measures.

The projection was made in the FBR’s Evidence-Based Revenue Forecasting (EBRF) report for 2026-27, issued on Wednesday.

According to the report, the projected collection represents an increase of 11.7% over the expected collection of Rs12.983 trillion for FY2025-26.

In absolute terms, the FBR expects revenue to rise by Rs1.517 trillion in the next fiscal year under the existing policy framework.

The report said the increase has been estimated by applying tax-specific buoyancy coefficients to projected macroeconomic indicators.

This means the forecast captures expected revenue growth from economic expansion without accounting for discretionary policy actions such as rate changes, new levies or withdrawal of exemptions.

The FBR said the estimate reflects the structural response of the tax system to expected improvements in GDP growth, industrial output and trade activity.

The report described the projected 11.7% growth as moderate but stable, based on existing tax policy and expected macroeconomic conditions.