Water troubles from within and without

The first is the larger threat. India’s decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance has challenged an arrangement that protected the subcontinent from turning every dry season, dam repair and flood surge into a security crisis. The second threat is less dramatic but more immediate. It is already visible in delayed crops, dry canals, lost hydropower, provincial accusations and higher costs for farmers.

This year, paddy growers on the right bank of Sukkur Barrage struggled to prepare nurseries on time because releases from Tarbela were disrupted. A nursery that cannot be transplanted after roughly 35 to 40 days loses quality and becomes more vulnerable to pests. In Lahore, meanwhile, flood officials have had to prepare for possible surges in the Ravi with weaker information because India is no longer sharing river and flood data through the treaty system. One problem leaves a farmer waiting for water. The other may leave an entire administration waiting for warning.

India’s threat is existential. Pakistan’s failures are everyday. The country cannot afford to confuse the scale of one with the urgency of the other.