Pakistan’s cotton sector has flagged serious concerns after national cotton arrivals reached just 5.3 million bales by December 15, reflecting a marginal decline compared to the same period last year and falling well short of official production targets set for the 2025–26 season.
Data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) shows that Punjab and Sindh remain significantly below the cultivation and output benchmarks fixed earlier by the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA), prompting questions over the credibility of official yield projections and policy planning.
Under the FCA plan, Punjab was expected to cultivate 3.46 million acres and produce 5.553 million bales, while Sindh was assigned a cultivation target of 1.556 million acres with an output goal of 4.040 million bales. However, PCGA figures up to mid-December show actual arrivals of 2.453 million bales in Punjab and 2.848 million bales in Sindh.
Despite having a production target that was around 37% lower than Punjab’s, Sindh’s cotton output was about 61% higher than Punjab’s at this stage of the season, underscoring a widening divergence between official estimates and on-ground performance.
Overall cotton arrivals stood at 5.3 million bales nationwide, showing only a marginal change from last year. Punjab recorded a year-on-year decline of around 5% in arrivals, while Sindh posted an increase of roughly 3%, according to PCGA data.
During the same period, textile mills purchased about 4.49 million bales from ginning factories, while exporters lifted approximately 175,000 bales, indicating active domestic consumption despite lower-than-expected production.
Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsan-ul-Haq questioned the FCA’s per-acre yield assumptions, noting that official targets implied productivity of 9.8 bales per acre in Punjab and 15.84 bales per acre in Sindh. He said the wide gap between the two provinces’ projected yields was difficult to reconcile with agronomic realities.
He also criticised the repeated issuance of what he described as unrealistic national production targets, arguing that persistent overestimation complicates decision-making for growers, ginners and textile manufacturers.
Separately, market uncertainty has been compounded by the suspension of daily cotton spot rates, as the Karachi Cotton Association has been unable to issue prices since its building was sealed last week following action by the Evacuee Trust Property Board with support from the Federal Investigation Agency. The disruption has affected price discovery, bank financing and insurance valuations linked to cotton trading.
Industry participants warn that continued inconsistencies in production planning and market disruptions could further weaken confidence across the cotton value chain at a time when the sector is already under pressure from declining acreage and shifting regional dynamics.