HBL PMI: Business confidence climbs to 2026 high despite steady manufacturing activity

The HBL Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.8 in June 2026 from 50.9 in May, marking a second straight month of modest expansion in manufacturing activity. While the headline index remained broadly stable, underlying dynamics pointed to continued weakness in domestic demand despite some easing in inflationary pressures, with external demand supporting overall growth. 

New orders declined for the second time in three months, reflecting subdued consumer and business spending. In contrast, export orders continued to improve, supported by improvements in product quality and ongoing client acquisition. This resilience in external demand helped lift manufacturing output, which expanded for the first time in three months. The divergence between export momentum and domestic weakness highlights the fragile and uneven nature of the recovery.

Commenting on the latest PMI data, Humaira Qamar, Head of Equities & Research at HBL Bank, noted, “A key positive development in June was the rebound in business sentiment. Future output expectations rose notably from May’s low to reach their highest level this year so far. The confidence was underpinned by prospects of a more supportive cost environment, and an improving economic backdrop driven by a sharp correction in oil prices. Moving forward, a sustained recovery will hinge on policy consistency, uninterrupted energy supply and persistent regional stability.”