The state of solar energy in Pakistan

Exactly how much solar electricity does Pakistan produce? The answer to that question should be quantifiable, but somehow is not so readily available. And while the plural of anecdote is not data, there does seem to be some indicate this much: solar electricity in Pakistan may not be a dominant source of electricity yet, but is already big business, and is likely even bigger than we know so far.

The mystery starts with a single number: in the calendar year 2023, Pakistan imported $1 billion worth of solar panels, nearly all of them from China. And while there are many grid-scale solar power plants currently being set up in Pakistan, even all of them combined should not cost anywhere close to requiring $1 billion worth of imported solar panels to complete construction.

Meanwhile, data from the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) indicates that while solar electricity is among the fastest growing sources of electricity in Pakistan, it is nowhere nearly as big as to justify those kinds of number for imports, especially at current prices, when one can import solar panels from China for as little as $0.11 per watt.

So, what is happening? Is the government right that the power consumption data for the national grid is declining because more and more people are moving off the grid and using their own solar panels? Or does the data that indicates that rooftop solar is still a very small niche in Pakistan the more correct view?