The India-Pakistan economic divergence

If you have read about the 2025 India-Pakistan war in the global press recently, you will have noticed the narrative around the fact that India is not just a larger country than Pakistan by just about any measure, but that it is also one that is doing significantly better economically.

Of course, it is not just a narrative, it is the truth. India is, by any measure, better off economically than Pakistan is right now, and this trend has been ongoing for at least the last two decades, and started even earlier. There is simply no denying Pakistan’s current relative weakness with respect to India.

At the time of writing, India and Pakistan have begun a low-grade war that is threatening to go into high gear any minute now. This is a time of jingoism, nationalism, and choosing sides. This publication considers itself staunchly Pakistani patriots, but we also believe in being a delivery vehicle of the cold, hard facts. When others’ blood runs red hot, ours remains ice cold. Both have their virtues, but this is the role we choose to play.

And so in this piece, we write the story of how India overtook Pakistan economically, with a focus on perhaps some less commonly examined underlying economic variables, specifically its demographics. The historical data shows how India rose and outpaced Pakistan. The forward-looking projections, however, indicate that perhaps Pakistan’s recent phase of relative weakness may soon end.

Even in this moment on the verge of war, we will not wish India ill. When the bombs stop falling, we will both still be here and still have to live next to each other, and we hope that can one day be on friendly terms. This is not about trying to find weaknesses in India, but merely to say that Pakistan’s fortunes are likely to turn soon.