Headline inflation falls to 3% in August, exceeding expectations

CPI declines on month-on-month and year-on-year basis, below government and market forecasts


Pakistan’s headline inflation recorded 3% on a year-on-year basis in August 2025, down from 4.1% in July 2025, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation fell by 0.6% in August, compared to a 2.9% increase in July and a 0.4% rise in August 2024.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation average for July-August FY25 stood at 3.53%, significantly lower than the 10.36% recorded during the same period in FY24.

The Finance Ministry had projected inflation to remain within the 4-5% range in August 2025, while several brokerage houses, including Insight Securities, expected it to be 4.1%.

Urban CPI inflation increased by 3.4% on a year-on-year basis in August 2025, down from 4.4% in July 2025 and 11.7% in August 2024. Month-on-month urban inflation fell 0.7%, compared to a 3.4% rise in July and 0.3% in August 2024.

Rural CPI inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year, compared to 3.5% in July 2025 and 6.7% in August 2024. On a monthly basis, rural inflation decreased by 0.5% in August, against a 2.2% increase in July and a 0.6% rise in August 2024.

The latest figures indicate a continuing moderation in inflation, reflecting lower electricity charges and a drop in LPG prices, which offset increases in food item costs.

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