Where does Thar Coal fit into Pakistan’s energy independence pipe dream?

As the missiles rained down on Doha and the rest of the Gulf, Qatar declared force majeure on gas exports. That was more than a week ago, with early estimates indicating it may take as long as a month for production volumes to go back to normal. 

With another week passing and no end in sight to Iran’s aggressions towards its Gulf neighbours that are hosting US military bases, the global energy supply chain is under attack. Perhaps no single region is as vulnerable to the disruption as South Asia. China and India are the single largest buyers of Qatar’s Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) with Taiwan, Pakistan, and South Korea not far behind. 

Pakistan’s position in this equation is further complicated by the fact that 99% of its imported natural gas comes from the Gulf. The country with the second largest reliance on Gulf gas is Bangladesh, with nearly 60% of their gas imports coming from Qatar and the UAE. 

What will the impact of this be in the short term? Pakistan relies on imports for approximately 51.2% of its total energy needs – across electricity generation, home cooking and heating needs, and fuel for vehicles and industrial uses – according to data from the United States Energy Information Administration. 

And when it comes to electricity generation, Power Minister Awais Leghari claimed in a recent interview with Reuters that 74% of Pakistan’s electricity generation comes from local sources, an uptick off the back of rising solarisation. The minister also said that the share of electricity generated through imported LNG in Pakistan was 10%. That much is necessary to meet evening demand peaks and stabilise ​the grid. In fact, generation from LNG plants has fallen by almost 50% since 2021 according to estimates of the Power Ministry.