Pakistan's major crops set to hit record highs for FY26, cotton output to remain below govt target: report

Pakistan's major crops are expected to post higher production in fiscal year 2025-26, with rice and sugarcane projected to reach record levels, while cotton output is set to remain significantly below the government's target despite modest improvements in yields.

Data compiled by Arif Habib Limited using figures from the Pakistan Economic Survey, SBP and research estimates show that wheat, rice, sugarcane and maize recorded overall growth during FY26, supported by improved acreage and favourable crop conditions.

Rice production is projected to reach 9.998 million tonnes, up 2.8% from 9.723 million tonnes in FY25. The output would mark the highest level recorded over the past 15 years, supported by improved yields and cultivation practices.

Rice acreage is estimated at 3.758 million hectares, slightly below 3.899 million hectares a year earlier, while yield is expected to increase 6.7% year-on-year to 2,660 kilograms per hectare from 2,494 kilograms per hectare, making rice the strongest-performing major crop in terms of productivity gains.

Sugarcane is also expected to achieve a record harvest, with production projected at 89.43 million tonnes, up 6.2% from 84.24 million tonnes in FY25. Cultivated area is forecast to rise to 1.221 million hectares from 1.193 million hectares, while yield is expected to improve 3.7% to 73,242 kilograms per hectare.

Wheat production is estimated at 29.68 million tonnes, an increase of 2.4% from 28.98 million tonnes last year. The area under cultivation is projected to expand to 9.648 million hectares compared with 9.099 million hectares in FY25.

However, wheat yield is expected to decline 3.4% year-on-year to 3,076 kilograms per hectare from 3,185 kilograms per hectare. Despite the decline, the yield remains above the long-term average of 2,924 kilograms per hectare and close to historical levels.

Maize is projected to record production of 8.45 million tonnes, up 2.5% from 8.24 million tonnes a year earlier. The increase is largely driven by a rise in cultivated area, which is expected to reach 1.603 million hectares compared with 1.437 million hectares in FY25.

Maize yields, however, are projected to decline by 8.1% year-on-year to 5,269 kilograms per hectare from 5,733 kilograms per hectare.

The cotton sector continues to face challenges despite some improvement in productivity. Cotton production is expected to increase marginally to 1.535 million tonnes from 1.542 million tonnes in FY25, while cultivated area is projected at 2.012 million hectares.

Cotton yield is forecast to rise 1.1% to 763 kilograms per hectare from 755 kilograms per hectare last year. However, total cotton output is estimated at around 7.1 million bales, remaining approximately 31% below the official production target.

The latest projections indicate that gains in rice, sugarcane, wheat and maize production are likely to support agricultural growth during FY26, although continued weakness in the cotton sector remains a challenge for the country's textile value chain and export industry.