LAHORE: A long-term economic forecast released by economists at Standard Chartered and looking forward to 2030, envisions India’s economy becoming larger than that of the United States.
According to the UK-based bank projections, it believes that seven of the world’s top 10 economies will come from emerging markets.
Moreover, this projection is based on gross domestic product (GDP) rankings and by this yardstick, China could emerge as the world’s largest economy by 2020.
However, a decade later the margin could widen greatly, and India looks to gain space too.
Also, the forecast stated Indonesia could break into the top five world economies by 2030.
It forecast India’s economic growth to accelerate to 7.8% by the 2020s, whilst China’s growth will slow to 5.0% by 2030, indicative of a natural slowdown owing to the economy’s size.
And Asia’s share of the global pie increased to 28% in 2018 compared to 20% in 2010.
As per Standard Chartered’s projections, this would possibly touch 35% by 2030, equaling cumulatively that of the United States and Euro area.
David Mann and other economists at Standard Chartered in the note said, “Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies.”