Pakistan exceeds export target with $30.64 billion in FY24

Pakistan’s merchandise exports grew by 10.54% to $30.64 billion in the financial year 2023-24, surpassing the annual target, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). This increase is up from $27.72 billion in the previous year. 

In June 2024, exports reached $2.53 billion, up 7.34% from $2.35 billion in June 2023, but down 10.92% month-on-month. 

Initiatives by the caretaker government boosted exports to $30.65 billion in FY24. Despite fluctuations, the overall trend shows a positive growth trajectory. 

The projected export target for the new fiscal year 2024-25 is $32.3 billion, a 6.6% increase from the just-ended fiscal year.

The highest-ever exports were recorded in FY22 at $31.78 billion, followed by a decline to $27.54 billion in FY23. Exports grew steadily from July 2023 until January, when they experienced a decline that continued until April. However, growth resumed in May and persisted into June. 

Rising exports are encouraging for the government, which aims to increase exports to $100 billion by FY28, though the IMF’s projections remain more conservative, anticipating gradual increases to $39.46 billion by FY28.

Imports

According to PBS data, imports decreased by 0.84% to $54.73 billion in FY24, down from $55.19 billion in FY23. This figure was $10 billion less than the IMF’s forecast from June last year, published in a staff-level report following the approval of the Stand-By Arrangement. The government had initially estimated imports at $58.7 billion at the time of the budget but later revised this figure to $52 billion.

Imports in June reached $4.91 billion, up from $4.18 billion in the same month last year, reflecting a growth of 17.43%.

The import target for FY204-25 is projected at $57.3 billion.

Trade Deficit

The trade deficit, the gap between exports and imports, decreased by 12.3% or $3.4 billion compared to the previous fiscal year. It narrowed to $24.08 billion in FY24 from $27.47 billion the year before, despite widening by 30.39% in June to $2.39 billion from $1.83 billion in June 2023. 

This reduced trade deficit, which was $4.5 billion less than government projections and nearly $10 billion below IMF forecasts, was achieved by curbing imports while sustaining export growth. 

The current account deficit is expected to be lower than IMF projections, with the central bank set to release figures next week. 

Pakistan’s average monthly imports, which typically ranged between $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion, were reduced due to foreign currency shortages. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) had based its revenue target on $5.5 billion monthly imports, but actual monthly imports averaged $4.6 billion, resulting in significant shortfalls in customs revenue and lower sales tax collection at the import stage.