Urea sales rise 7% YoY in November 2024 amid seasonal demand

Urea sales in Pakistan for November 2024 are expected to reach 652,000 tons, reflecting a 7% year-on-year (YoY) increase from 611,000 tons in November 2023, according to data compiled by Topline Securities.  

The uptick is attributed to seasonal Rabi demand, resulting in an 82% month-on-month (MoM) improvement compared to October 2024.

Despite the November growth, cumulative urea sales for the first 11 months of 2024 are anticipated to decline 7% YoY, totaling 5.58 million tons compared to 6 million tons in the same period last year, largely due to weak farm economics. The closing inventory of urea for November is estimated at 789,000 tons, down from 841,000 tons in October 2024.

Company-wise, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is expected to post a 12% YoY drop in sales to 191,000 tons, mainly due to higher urea prices compared to its peers. 

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is projected to record 226,000 tons in urea sales (up 13% YoY), followed by FATIMA at 124,000 tons (down 1% YoY) and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL) at 57,000 tons (up 34% YoY).

Total DAP sales for November are anticipated at 239,000 tons, marking a 14% YoY and 23% MoM decline. However, cumulative DAP sales for 11M2024 are expected to grow 3% YoY to 1.47 million tons. 

Company-wise, FFBL is likely to lead DAP sales at 98,000 tons in November, followed by EFERT with 48,000 tons and FFC with 36,000 tons.

On the inventory side, EFERT holds the largest urea stock at 348,000 tons, followed by FATIMA at 209,000 tons and Fauji Fertilizer companies collectively at 153,000 tons. 

DAP inventory for November is projected at 142,000 tons, significantly higher than 32,000 tons in November 2023 but down from 306,000 tons in October 2024.