Cotton arrivals in Pakistan have continued to dwindle as the ongoing season progresses, deepening concerns for the country’s textile value chain and leaving farmers in a precarious position. With recovery prospects appearing increasingly bleak, the latest data from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) paints a troubling picture for one of Pakistan’s most critical agricultural commodities.
The PCGA’s fortnightly report, released on December 15, reveals a substantial drop in cotton arrivals compared to the previous year. Total arrivals so far this season have reached 5.367 million bales, marking a sharp decline of 2.656 million bales from last year’s total of 8.023 million bales, representing a 33.11% year-on-year decrease. The most recent fortnightly flow, ending December 15, 2024, saw arrivals of just 0.176 million bales, a 34.6% drop from the same period last year when 0.27 million bales were recorded.
The provincial data highlights a more pronounced shortfall in Punjab, where arrivals have plummeted by 33.44%, compared to Sindh, which recorded a 31.8% decline. Interestingly, Punjab, traditionally the dominant cotton-producing region, has now fallen behind Sindh in total output. Punjab’s production stands at 2.593 million bales, while Sindh has slightly outpaced it with 2.773 million bales.
The reasons behind this dramatic decline are multifaceted. According to media reports, low market prices have discouraged farmers from investing in cotton crops, while inconsistent and unclear government policies have further compounded the challenges. Additionally, poor agricultural practices, including early planting and subpar fertiliser application, have resulted in suboptimal yields. These issues are exacerbated by larger systemic problems such as climate change, pest infestations, and disease outbreaks. Erratic weather patterns—ranging from droughts to heavy rains—have devastated crops, while inadequate irrigation systems and insufficient pest control have further hindered production.
The ramifications of this crisis go far beyond individual farmers. The entire cotton supply chain, which underpins a significant portion of Pakistan’s textile industry, faces serious risks. Reduced production threatens not only domestic supply and export volumes but also market stability and pricing. Experts warn that if these challenges persist, more farmers may abandon cotton in favour of alternative crops, further jeopardizing efforts to revitalise this crucial sector.
To address the crisis, stakeholders are urging immediate intervention. Proposed solutions include providing direct support to farmers through subsidies, upgrading irrigation infrastructure, and ensuring access to high-quality seeds and fertilisers. Investments in agricultural research and development are also essential, particularly to develop drought-resistant and pest-resistant cotton varieties that can withstand the increasing pressures of climate change.
Market reforms are equally critical. Stabilising cotton prices and creating robust market linkages will ensure fair compensation for farmers, encouraging them to continue investing in cotton cultivation. With coordinated efforts from the government, private sector, and agricultural experts, Pakistan may still be able to reverse this troubling trend and restore cotton’s pivotal role in the national economy.
