As 2024 draws to a close, it is worth looking back at where we thought Pakistan’s auto market would stand by now. In early January, the outlook was shaped by easing interest rates, rising pent-up demand, and the quiet but steady emergence of new young customers into the car buying age. With the facts now in hand, it’s clear these themes played out in ways that speak to the market’s resilience to rebound — and hint at what 2025 might bring.
At the start of the year, our forecast suggested policy rates would ease up to 15% from their record high of 22% fueling both consumer and industrial confidence. However, that benchmark was crossed on 16th of December when the policy rate was dropped to 13% creating a positive wave. About three months after the first cut, just as expected, demand perked up as per PAMA reports. September car sales jumped to 10,297, a 18% month-on-month increase, while October jumped another 27% over September. Although November dipped as the year ended, this timing matched earlier predictions, showing how interest rates remain a critical lever in guiding market sentiment.
Demand that defied the odds
Historically, the first half of any given year accounts for over 55% of total annual vehicle sales. In 2024’s first six months, the market averaged around 10,000 units per month. If that baseline had persisted, the second half should have hovered around 8,400 units monthly. Instead, it hit nearly 10,200—a full 21% above “business-as-usual” projections. By year-end, total sales are expected to reach about 140,000 units, a 34% gain over last year’s 105,000. This surge underlines that the industry’s rebound wasn’t a fluke; it’s rooted in underlying strengths, consumer confidence, and improved financing conditions.
Looking ahead, 2025 may have even more surprises in store. Without adding anything new, the general demand pattern could push volumes to about 168,000 units. But there’s plenty of fresh products on the horizon. Suzuki’s Every has replaced the aging Bolan, potentially pushing the monthly volume of Suzuki vans from 500 to 800 units. A Chinese brand BYD has planned CBU imports of EVs in the first quarter that will broaden choices, while Hyundai’s Elantra Hybrid—despite its premium pricing—still managed to draw 150 units in its opening month.
Meanwhile, the upcoming Kia Sportage with Hybrid technology would push the volumes the most. Sportage pioneered the crossover SUV in Pakistan since its launch in 2019 and managed selling over 45,000 CKD units in five years. Spy shots of the new model test mule have been circulating across social media, sparking conversations in living rooms and online forums. Its anticipated launch in 2025 could be the spark that pushes demand skyward once again.
If these new models weren’t enough, news reports suggest the government may raise the auto financing limit from Rs 30 lakh to Rs 60 lakh. Such a move would unleash a wave of pent-up demand. Combining new models with easier credit access could push 2025’s total beyond 180,000 units or possibly over the 200,000 mark if the agricultural rural economy produces good yield and receives good rates—a milestone many didn’t expect until 2026.
The end beneficiary
It is not just about automakers profitability. Each sale fuels a broader ecosystem: the component makers, service centers, logistics providers, and, most importantly, the skilled workers and their families, whose livelihoods rest on a stable market. Observing how closely this year’s outcomes tracked earlier expectations offers a clearer understanding of the forces at play—and suggests that careful attention to data, policy, and consumer sentiment can shed light on what’s next.
The real message here is crystal clear: 2024 proved that well-timed rate cuts, smart product launches, and evolving consumer preferences can ignite extraordinary results. The overall economic activity, potential financing reforms, and a pipeline of volume selling fresh models like Suzuki Every and Kia Sportage promise more than incremental growth—they herald a genuine leap to industry recovery. Stay tuned, because 2025 is gearing up to break records with new models and financing reforms.
