China’s exports rose 5.8% in June from a year earlier, according to customs data released Monday, as companies rushed to ship goods ahead of a potential reimposition of U.S. tariffs.
The increase outpaced May’s 4.8% growth and beat expectations of a 5.0% rise.
The growth was led by strong shipments to Southeast Asian nations, with exports to ASEAN countries rising 16.8%. Exports to the United States also climbed 32.4% month-on-month, as June marked the first full month of reduced U.S. tariffs.
However, year-on-year growth for U.S.-bound exports remained negative.
The export surge comes as businesses on both sides of the Pacific wait to see whether China and the U.S. can finalize a more permanent agreement by the August 12 deadline. A failure to do so could lead to the return of duties exceeding 100%, which may again disrupt global supply chains.
Imports also rebounded in June, rising 1.1% after a 3.4% drop in May. China’s trade surplus grew to $114.7 billion, up from $103.22 billion in the previous month. Rare earths exports increased 32% month-on-month, suggesting some easing of previous export restrictions.
While Chinese firms are shipping more to nearby markets to hedge against U.S. policy shifts, concerns remain that further duties above 35% would make exports unprofitable. Analysts warn that high tariffs and weak global demand will likely slow China’s export growth in the coming months.
In energy and commodities, China’s crude oil imports rose to their highest daily rate since August 2023. Iron ore imports increased by 8% from May.
Soybean imports from Brazil surged to a record 9.73 million tons, while imports from the U.S. totaled just 724,000 tons.
Meanwhile, new U.S. trade actions could indirectly affect China. A 40% tariff on transshipments through Vietnam and a proposed 10% duty on imports from BRICS nations have raised concerns in Beijing. China, a founding member of BRICS, continues to support Brazil by increasing purchases of its agricultural goods despite U.S. trade penalties.
