Everything you know about Pakistan’s so-called population problem is based on a static picture of the data that is 30 years out of date. You probably think we have too many children and that our population is growing too fast. That is wrong.
Pakistan – the sixth largest nation in the world – is about to hit a quarter of a billion people in population some time later this year or early next year, and contrary to what you may remember from your Pakistan Studies curriculum, that population number is now an asset, not a liability.
We do not mean to suggest that Pakistan’s population was never a problem. It was. But things change, and we in Pakistan tend to not pause to notice when things have improved. We especially do not do so when noticing such a thing involves analysing slow-moving data, and there are few things slower-moving than demographic trends.
We shall start this discussion by defining some terms, and asking you to jettison the notion that “population” is a problem. More specifically, we want this to be a discussion of demographics: the characteristics of the population, rather than its size. As we will demonstrate, the mere size of a population is not in itself an indication of a problem, and indeed, all things being equal, a larger population is preferable to a smaller one.
No, Pakistan’s problem was two-fold: the composition of the population, and its growth rate, both of which would make it difficult for the nation as a whole to escape poverty. Simply put, it’s not that we had – at any point in our history – too many people. It is that too small a proportion of the population could earn a living, meaning each earner had too many dependents. And given the fact that we had too many dependents because the number of children was very high, that also meant that the population was growing faster than was possible for the government to cater to its needs.
This picture that we just described in the previous paragraph was likely what you mostly knew about both from learning about it in school, and through your lived experience. It was accurate as of about 1995. But sometime around that year, things began to change. The change was very slow at first and was not really discernable until about the mid-2000s. But the change in course has been unmistakable since then. The content in this publication is expensive to produce. But unlike other journalistic outfits, business publications have to cover the very organizations that directly give them advertisements. Hence, this large source of revenue, which is the lifeblood of other media houses, is severely compromised on account of Profit’s no-compromise policy when it comes to our reporting. No wonder, Profit has lost multiple ad deals, worth tens of millions of rupees, due to stories that held big businesses to account. Hence, for our work to continue unfettered, it must be supported by discerning readers who know the value of quality business journalism, not just for the economy but for the society as a whole.To read the full article, subscribe and support independent business journalism in Pakistan
very insightful.
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can you please share the complete article with me so i can share with them.
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That’s a one sided view. Large population might help the industry getting cheap labour, but what about the limited resources we have? It will further degrade the income of an average household in the long run.
This must be the most positive article about Pakistan in years! … and the detailed statistics ! Congratulations Farooq. It was an eye opener for me especially with regards to the advantages of our population (which I always used to preface by “Over”). Very detailed study and a very positive outlook. I hope the two main “takeaways” of yours are adhered to by our governments- ie reducing maternal & infant mortality; and 2.5 children per adult.
On purely subjective basis, yes perhaps the numbers may be favorable in the long run. But objectively, are these growth numbers equipped with modern day workforce requirements, even as basic as ethics and discipline let alone education. Advancements in technology such as AI and robotics, automation also havent seemed to be factored in. In natural progressions, things may improve on supply demand dynamics, but monumental shifts would require reforms to shape this growth for prodcutivity.
Great update to our age old thinking, represented well with data too.