While social media abuzz with wishes for the Prime Minister’s quick recovery from the coronavirus and concerns about how this will affect vaccine perception in Pakistan, a lot has quickly traveled to the background in terms of the happenings of social media.
However, there were still more than a few interesting and amusing moments throughout the week. This week, we look at the potential of barbers as mobile money agents, APTMA’s latest activities that are raising eyebrows, the auto industry in Pakistan trying to break free from the shackles of the Big Three, how Pakistan is squandering its mango export potential, and much more. Profit’s Ariba Shahid presents this week’s social media roundup.
- Barber potential
We’re always going on about financial inclusion, mostly because it is very important. But recently, the founder of Gallup Pakistan, Bilal Gilani, made an interesting suggestion about an industry that could act as mobile agents: barbers. There are currently at least 150,000 barbers in Pakistan, the vast majority of them local corner shop setups. The overall estimated turnover of the industry is $750 million, all things that make them a viable option to be mobile money agents. However, this would require documentation. That acts as a hindrance towards recording transactions because of tax aversion. However, Raheel Kuraishy, an Innovative Scientist as per his LinkedIn, comments that post offices, logistic companies, barber shops, dairy shops, restaurants, fruits and vegetable shops can’t help without a digital roadmap and guiding hand.
- APTMA spinning a tale
Fascinating to know USD3 Bln have been already invested in textile expansion. Another thing if credit data does not support it.
Also, 10% growth to reach $23bn exports will take 6 years not 3.
1/ https://t.co/HdJcUntHaM— Zuhair Abbasi (@zuhair_abbasi) March 19, 2021
Zuhair Abbasi, Senior Analyst at BR Research, makes his skepticism known about the fact that industrialists have already invested $3 billion into expanding capacity, and also points out the incorrect calculation done by APTMA. Moreover, Abbasi points out the confusing nature of the term “output gap” whilst also claiming the industry is at full capacity.
- Regulators do your job
Now that people have become a little interested in #Pakistan #Stocks, Pakistan has one of the lowest MarketCap to GDP ratio amongst the developing world / frontier markets. @business shows for 2019 at 15.98% with the highest at 46.9% in 2007. pic.twitter.com/NcLqcYF87F
— Ali Wahab (@ali1wahab) March 19, 2021
Market capitalization refers to how much a company is worth as determined by the stock market. It is defined as the total market value of all outstanding shares. Pakistan’s Market Cap to GDP ratio remains one of the lowest amongst developing countries. Ali Wahab, an investment banker points this fact out and suggests that investment in the real estate sector remains a reason for this. Moreover, he talks about the need for the regulator to be regulatory in nature and for the regulator to not hound companies unnecessarily.
- No love for the Big Three
Looks like there are more Kia Sportage selling in Karachi than Corolla. New Sportage number on the road is mind blowing!
— Adeel Azhar (@adeel_azhar) March 17, 2021
In the past, roads in Pakistan were filled with favorites such as Mehran, Alto, Corolla, City, or Civic. These cars were favourites less because they were such cool cars, and more because there were no other options. The power of the infamous ‘big three’ seems to be on the wane, however, considering the increasing number of cars by other brands, in particular the KIA Sportage. Adeel Azhar, a local radio show host, however questions about where the Tuscons, Proton X70s, and MG cars are that claim to have been sold out.
- Digital mapping
About half Pakistan’s properties are not registered for tax, with 15000 properties to 1 field surveyor. So 👏🏼 to @SNGPakistan & @GovtofPunjabPK digital mapping to increase property tax revenue. Great example of innovation in governance. #DigitalTransformation @ukinpakistan 🇬🇧🇵🇰 pic.twitter.com/ZYHNv0ZUXH
— Annabel Gerry (@AnnabelGerry) March 17, 2021
Annabel Gerry, the development director in @UKinPakistan applauds the efforts of SNG Pakistan and the Government of Punjab for their efforts in digital mapping in order to increase property tax revenue. This is an important step considering the fact that there are approximately 15,000 properties to 1 field surveyor.
- IPOs are cool
Over the next decade, M&As will build up very slowly for the Pak tech industry & most exits will be to foreign buyers
An ignored exit option are local IPOs & profitable tech cos should start tapping into this for sure.Small IPO > cheap acquisitionhttps://t.co/XIzbLTBZAs
— Shehryar Hydri (@sheryhydri) March 20, 2021
Brokerage firms often overlook the tech sector. This is to the extent that most do not have a dedicated analyst for the sector nor do they provide coverage. That, however, has to change considering the fact that the brokerage sector needs to play its part in readying tech companies for IPOs instead of merely relying on foreign buyouts.
- Mango murder
Global companies are expanding into mango supply chains, trying to do to the fruit what they did to the avocado years ago.
That’s an opportunity for Pakistani farmers, investors, and exports.
Meanwhile, folks are busy doing 👇🏽.https://t.co/cCqvNnBtkb https://t.co/oiPE585Jgr
— Uzair Younus عُزیر یُونس (@UzairYounus) March 19, 2021
Who doesn’t love Mangos? Well it looks like some Pakistanis do not, and are merrily out and about chopping down mango trees. While that may just be a whatsapp forward, Uzair Younus is right about the fact that Pakistan just isn’t living up to it’s true mango potential considering the fact that not much has been done to tap into the global mango supply chain to make mangoes the next avocado.
- Numbers game
Great news:
🇵🇰’s GDP growth forecast lifted by 50%
Beating economist expectations & smashing false media narratives, my new Vlog explains 3 surprise drivers of growth
Also, Large Scale Manufacturing on 🔥 thanks to smart govt policies https://t.co/9FpmSH81S2
— Bilal Lakhani (@MBilalLakhani) March 19, 2021
A mathematician, a statistician and an accountant apply for the same job. The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks, “What does two plus two equal?” The mathematician replies, “Four.”
Then the interviewer calls in the statistician and asks the same question, “What does two plus two equal?” The statistician says, “On average, four – give or take ten percent, but on average four.”
Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and poses the same question, “What does two plus two equal? “The accountant gets up, locks the door, closes the shades, sits down next to the interviewer and says, “What do you want it to equal?”
Here, Bilal Lakhani, reminds us of the account. While a 2% GDP forecast jumping to 3% is merely a 1% or 100bps change, if you calculate the change in percentage terms it comes down to 50%. While Bilal is talking about this 1% change, he is also teaching us a valuable lesson on representation of numbers and how sometimes even an absolute change of 1% can seem 50% given the low base case.
