Short-term inflation rises 4.17% YoY driven by higher food prices

Pakistan’s weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), fell 1.34% week-on-week (WoW) for the combined consumption group during the week ending September 18, 2025, offering temporary relief to consumers. 

However, on a year-on-year basis, the SPI rose sharply by 4.17%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly affecting flood-hit households still recovering from recent disasters, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The SPI for the combined consumption group stood at 330.84 points, down from 335.35 points the previous week. Based on 2015-16 prices, the SPI tracks 51 essential items across 17 urban centres to provide a snapshot of short-term price trends for different income groups.

Compared to the same week last year, several commodities saw significant price increases, including ladies’ sandals (+55.62%), tomatoes (+49.02%), sugar (+30.17%), gas charges for Q1 (+29.85%), pulse moong (+15.79%), wheat flour (+15.70%), beef (+12.31%), vegetable ghee 2.5kg (+11.26%), and diesel (+9.51%). Conversely, some items recorded notable declines, including onions (-38.23%), garlic (-27.50%), electricity charges for Q1 (-26.26%), pulse gram (-21.45%), pulse mash (-20.95%), tea (-17.93%), potatoes (-15.20%), and chicken (-11.06%).

On a weekly basis, prices of tomatoes (-23.11%), chicken (-12.74%), electricity charges (-6.21%), bananas (-5.07%), wheat flour (-2.60%), and onions (-1.17%) fell, while diesel (+1.06%), eggs (+0.91%), rice, firewood, beef, and some pulses registered moderate increases.

For households earning up to Rs17,732 per month, the SPI eased by 1.43% to 322.71 points, while higher income groups also recorded week-on-week declines ranging from 1.23% to 1.59%. During the week, 18 items (35.29%) rose in price, 14 items (27.45%) fell, and 19 items (37.26%) remained unchanged.

Economists note that while the weekly decline provides short-term relief, the annual increase highlights persistent supply chain disruptions, rising energy costs, seasonal fluctuations, and the ongoing impact of recent floods on low-income households.