LAHORE: Urea sales are expected to decline by 6pc year-on-year to 383,000 tonnes in September 2020, as compared to 405,000 tonnes in September 2019.
Sunny Kumar, a research analyst at Topline Securities Limited, believed the decline in sales is due to delays in sowing of Rabi crop on expectations of another spell of heavy rains.
“This is likely to take 9M2020 urea sales to 4,203,000 tonnes as compared to 4,383,000 tonnes in 9M2019, down 4pc YoY,” he added.
Urea production in September this year is expected to remain largely unchanged (YoY and MoM both) at 553,000 tonnes. This is likely to take urea closing inventory to 478,000 tonnes.
Kumar informed that among companies, Fatima Group and Engro Fertilizer (EFERT) are expected to post an increase in urea sales; Fatima may witness an increase of 33pc to 45,000 tonnes while EFERT sales may rise 28pc to 120,000 tonnes. On the other hand, Agritech Limited (AGL) and Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC) are likely to post a decline in urea offtake; AGL by 38pc to 13,000 tonnes and FFC by 6pc to 165,000 tonnes.
Meanwhile, the sale of DAP in September 2020 are anticipated to remain unchanged YoY at 210,000 tonnes, but down by 29pc on month-on-month. As a result, DAP sales are expected at 1,351,000 tonnes in 9M2020 compared to 1,163,000 tonnes in 9M2019, up 16pc YoY.
Company-wise data suggests EFERT is likely to record sales of DAP at 45,000 tonnes (up 25pc YoY) followed by FFC 20,000 tonnes (up 15pc YoY), and Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL) 100,000 tonnes (down 6pc YoY).